New York based political risk firm, Teneo Intelligence, says the All Progressives Congress (APC) Presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, is gaining momentum over President Goodluck Jonathan ahead of next week’s election.
Teneo Intelligence, in a report yesterday,thought Buhari had "an edge", but that “a last-minute upset by the incumbent president remained a possibility.”
It said: "President Goodluck Jonathan is banking on recent reports of the 'successful' counterinsurgency offensive against Boko Haram to help turn the tide on his battered reputation...
“However, the momentum of Jonathan’s rival Muhammadu Buhari of the main opposition All Progressive Congress (APC) continues to grow.
“Despite the absence of reliable polling data in Nigeria, the most important signal that he could unseat the president is the change in the voting trend this time round.
“Buhari’s support in the north (his home region) appears to be unwavering – he has consistently defeated his rivals there in the past three election cycles. This support is only likely to increase thanks to a growing anti-Jonathan sentiment in the region...
“Buhari’s strong momentum represents a serious threat to many powerful business and political interests that have benefitted from the incumbent People’s Democratic Party (PDP)’s 16-year political dominance. Consequently, entrenched interests will not easily concede a Buhari victory.”
Teneo’s prediction followed on the heels of the projection made last week by the world’s leading global political risk research and consulting firm, Eurasia Group that Buhari has a 60% chance of winning, depending on how a considerable tranche of uncommitted voters leans.
Eurasia’s Africa practice head and Analyst Philippe de Pontet wrote that the electoral map is tilting to Buhari in swing regions in the Southwest and the Middle Belt.
He said that with Buhari in the saddles, investors could expect business-oriented policies.
He adds: "The election will still be difficult to call, but our expectation of a narrow Jonathan win was predicated on several factors that are losing some saliency late in the campaign.
Chief among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). While this still helps Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of support for Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission.
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