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PMS Price Reduction And The Economy: My Takeaways - By Babatunde Fashola

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<b>It is no longer news that the federal government has announced a reduction in the pump price of premium motor spirit (PMS), popularly called petrol. While I have made my position known on my Twitter handle that ‘a little over 10% reduction in cost of the final (crude oil) product (PMS) in response to an over 50% drop in the cost of the raw material is a good try and that Nigerians can get a better deal’, I am constrained to make this further intervention for a few reasons.</b></div>
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1. There is a sense in the public space that this reduction is politically motivated, given the reactions that have followed it. To the extent therefore that there is a political nexus, it deserves further interrogation because it is an ECONOMIC issue and this is a major issue in the elections as canvassed by both parties, especially at the presidential candidacy level.</div>
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General Muhammadu Buhari had seized the moment and the importance of the economic issue earlier this month. Through his campaign council he said: "Stop stealing from Nigerians and allow them enjoy the relief that has come to consumers of petroleum products globally.</div>
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"For the Nigerian consumers, unfortunately the collapse of crude oil price since October 2014 has not translated into any change in diesel, kerosene and PMS prices across the country."</div>
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2. The second reason for my intervention is also economic, and it goes to interrogate POLICY, particularly this PRICING POLICY, and the consistency of the party in government vis-a-vis their credibility before the Nigerian public.</div>
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<b>The Economics of Oil</b></div>
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It must be obvious to any discerning mind that you cannot have a viable democracy without debating the management of the economy. This is because the real issue in elections is the way people’s lives have fared during the tenure of the incumbent. The question, sometimes spoken, sometimes not, but never forgotten, is this: Has my life been better in the last few years or not? This question always involves an examination of the record of service of the incumbent and many have lost their seats in a bad economy. So, the present government must defend its record on the economy and this involves its management of prices and consumer indices.</div>
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The cost of energy, fuel, gas, electricity for transport, cooking, heating and manufacturing is a direct determinant of the cost of living and how far people’s wages can take them before the next pay day. It is not therefore surprising that in the last decade and a half, many western countries have gone to war "in order to make peace", especially in the Middle East, so that there is no scarcity of petroleum (crude oil) supply. The reason is simple.</div>
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Scarce crude means high prices of crude oil, translating to high fuel, gas and production costs, leading to restive domestic population, which can translate to electoral defeat.</div>
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If one remembers Iraq, Libya and Egypt; in spite of the democratic masks that those military interventions wore, it is difficult to dismiss a domestic, political (electoral) self interest in them. In the aftermath of these interventions and investment in shale oil as an alternative, leading to the crash of crude oil prices, what have these western countries done at home for their people in terms of oil price management?</div>
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Let us look at a few examples:</div>
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i. <i>United Kingdom</i></div>
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Drop in price (dollar per litre): 0.52</div>
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Percentage of price drop: 23.75%</div>
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ii. <i>United States of America</i></div>
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Drop in price (dollar per litre): 0.39</div>
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Percentage of price drop: 36.57%</div>
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iii. <i>Singapore</i></div>
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Drop in price (dollar per litre): 1.79</div>
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Percentage of price drop: 21%</div>
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iv. <i>Nigeria</i></div>
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Drop in price (dollar per litre): 0.03</div>
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Percentage of price drop: 10.3%</div>
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<b>My Take Aways</b></div>
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a) It is poor economic management to import the final product of a commodity whose raw material (crude oil) we produce in abundance.</div>
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b) A refinery in Nigeria, such as the 400,000-barrel refinery we are supporting by providing land for the Dangote Group in the Lekki Free Zone will keep jobs at home (instead of in foreign refineries), create income for the Nigerian government by way of companies income tax, and give us better control of pricing by eliminating subsidies and demurrage charges by port delays paid to ship owners in dollars against a weak naira; and it will eliminate many other charges that are passed on to ordinary Nigerians.</div>
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c) Clearly, an inefficient port management that escalates shipping costs, a devalued currency, and an exorbitant interest rate on borrowing, which are economic failures of the current government, are part of the reasons why Nigeria cannot get a better deal from an over 50% drop in crude oil price.</div>
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<b>Interrogation of Policy</b></div>
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In announcing the reduction of fuel pump price, the Minister of Petroleum Resources, Mrs Diezani Alison-Madueke, stated the reasons for the government’s decision in her own words as follows: "As you may be aware, there has been a lot of volatility in the price of petroleum products, particularly crude oil, over the last few months. Invariably, this has meant that the price of the product in Nigeria has also been greatly impacted."</div>
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When addressing journalists, she added: "After watching the price per barrel drop over the last few months, we have finally achieved parity... therefore this would be the best time to actually reduce the price. We have been watching very carefully over the last two weeks to ensure that the volatility did not destabilise this reduction in price and we think it’s safe to implement it at this time."</div>
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Please note she used the words (1) ''price per barrel drop" and (2) the "achieved parity" in the oil price regime to justify the reduction.</div>
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i) <i>Price Per Barrel Drop</i></div>
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As I have pointed out, I doubt that a 10% reduction is the best that we can get in response to a 50% drop in oil price, and this is simple common sense. If a product is manufactured at X price and the price of the raw material drops by Y%, I think it is simple economics to reflect that Y% drop in the price of the final product without doing any damage to the cost of packaging or transporting the product. And this should happen vice versa if the price of the raw material heads in the opposite direction.</div>
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But let me be quick to acknowledge that these price changes may not necessarily be effected overnight in a period of volatility; and this is the relevance of the minister’s point about 'parity', which I will come to later.</div>
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But the quick additional point to make is that diesel has not enjoyed any subsidy for a long time and there is a loud silence on this product, as far as pricing policy is concerned; and nothing is said about kerosene. So, if this was really meant to bring relief to the people, I think diesel, which impacts on production costs, power costs in homes through generators, and kerosene, which ordinary Nigerians use to cook, would have been the place for government to demonstrate that it understands the plight of the people. This would have afforded some cushion against the austerity measures indicated by the Minister of Finance.</div>
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MY TAKE AWAY</div>
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This price reduction is not far reaching enough. It demonstrates a knee-jerk reaction to a serious economic issue where the majority of ordinary Nigerians are concerned. When we factor the fact that the majority of Nigerians generate their own power at four times the cost of public power, and they mostly use diesel, a reduction there would have reduced the pressure on their disposable income.</div>
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(ii)<i> Achieved Parity</i></div>
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My understanding of the minister’s use of these words is that government now believes that oil prices will hover around the current prices of $50 per barrel, so that, according to her, "the entire country will benefit immensely from this reduction." If this is correct, then who are we to believe? If we go back to the statement of the Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, on December 17, 2014 when, while defending the oil budget benchmark of $65 for the 2015 budget which some observers felt was too ambitious, she said: "This is what we have done by proposing a benchmark of $65pb. We recognise that prices might still fall further but we do not intend to revise the price further down as price intelligence indicates that prices might average between $65 and $70pb in 2015." If the Finance Minister expects oil prices to get to $70 and the Petroleum Minister says we have "achieved parity", there seems to be inherent contradictions within the same government.</div>
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MY TAKE AWAYS</div>
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a. Are government departments talking to themselves?</div>
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b. Who is co-ordinating the economy?</div>
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c. Why was the Minister for Finance not part of this major pricing policy briefing?</div>
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d. Was this price reduction provided for in the 2015 budget?</div>
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P.S.</div>
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As I concluded this intervention, my attention was brought to a response by former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi to a contribution I had made, in which he said in THISDAY Newspaper that: "The president showed that the sound economic policies of his government have brought about macro-economic stability. This has been acknowledged by the renowned economist and former Chairman of the Asset Management Division of Goldman Sachs Group, Dr. Jim O’Neill, who coined the term BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey), recognising these countries as the world’s fastest growing economies."</div>
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I have no issue with Governor Obi, because his role in government and policy making is still unclear to me. If he speaks as a party man, it is a measure of credit to him that he knows more about the programmes of a party he joined a few weeks ago, than those he met there. But for the record, the same O’Neill, whom he quotes in support of this government’s policy and the leadership of President Goodluck Jonathan, said: "If he (Jonathan) doesn't get re-elected, and it's because of Nigerian people wanting something different and something better, I think the markets would be happy with that. Foreign investors are pretty negative about Nigeria, so I don’t dismiss the possibility that if he lost, people actually might react positively."</div>
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Those who seek the truth should simply visit this link and verify the facts of what O’Neill actually said:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-08/o-neill-says-jonathan-vote-loss-may-be-seen-as-nigeria-positive.html</div>
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MY TAKE AWAY</div>
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I think O’Neill is right. Nigerians want "something different and something better". They want CHANGE.</div>
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<b>Babatunde Fashola is the Governor of Lagos State, Nigeria</b></div>

PMS Price Reduction And The Economy: My Takeaways - By Babatunde Fashola

It is no longer news that the federal government has announced a reduction in the pump price of premium motor spirit (PMS), popularly called petrol. While I have made my position known on my Twitter …

26 Jan 2015

I'll Handover On May 29, Jonathan Tells Kerry

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<b>President Goodluck Jonathan on Sunday affirmed that the May 29 handover date has not been changed.</b></div>
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He was apparently reacting to the calls by some individuals including the National Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki (retd.), for the postponement of the February general elections.</div>
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A statement released by his Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Dr. Reuben Abati, quoted Jonathan as saying this during a closed-door meeting he had with the United States Secretary of State, Mr. John Kerry, at the State House, Marina.</div>
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The statement was signed personally by the President.</div>
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He said he had what he called "a candid and constructive discussion" about a broad range of issues with his guest.</div>
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He said he emphasised to Kerry that he was deeply committed to ensuring that the elections were free, fair and credible.</div>
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Jonathan said, <i>"I emphasised to Secretary Kerry that I am deeply committed to ensuring that our forthcoming election is free, fair, and credible.</i></div>
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<i>"It is especially critical that all political parties abide by the Abuja Accord, which commits each to non-violence before, during, and after the election.</i></div>
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<i>"I made it absolutely clear that the May 29th handover date is sacrosanct.</i></div>
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<i>"In addition, the government will provide all resources that are required by the Independent National Electoral Commission to ensure that the election goes smoothly.</i></div>
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<i>"I also emphasised that INEC is an independent body, which makes its own decisions without any interference from the government."</i></div>
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The President said he was grateful to the US for standing with Nigeria and its people in the nation’s fight against Boko Haram.</div>
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I'll Handover On May 29, Jonathan Tells Kerry

President Goodluck Jonathan on Sunday affirmed that the May 29 handover date has not been changed. He was apparently reacting to the calls by some individuals including the National Security Adviser,…

26 Jan 2015

Panic In PDP Over Elections' Eve High Profile Defections

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<b>Barely 2 weeks to the 2015 presidential election, the political atmosphere is charged again as high-profile political figures across the country have been moving from one political party to another.</b></div>
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The defection is not limited to the ruling PDP and the leading opposition APC but they are the major losers and gainers, respectively. </div>
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Last Monday, the APC presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, received Niger State Deputy Governor, Alhaji Ahmed Musa Ibeto, alongside members of National and State Assemblies, and aides to Governor Babangida Aliyu who left the PDP for the APC.</div>
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<b><a href="http://nigerianewsroom.blogspot.com/2015/01/just-in-niger-state-deputy-governor-200.html">The Deputy Governor had said he defected to APC alongside 200 others</a></b>, most of whom were serving aides of Governor Aliyu because of PDP’s shoddy handling of their petition on the gubernatorial primary election in the state.</div>
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Already, the Niger State Deputy Governor, Mr Ibeto, said on Wednesday that he had assumed leadership of his new party, being the highest political office holder in the state.</div>
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He spoke during the inauguration of the State's APC gubernatorial candidate, Mr Abubakar Sani Bello's campaign committee in Minna.</div>
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Reacting to the defection last Wednesday, Governor Aliyu denied reports that he begged the former military president, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, to convince his deputy and others who recently defected to the APC, to return to the PDP.</div>
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Also, penultimate Saturday, prominent PDP chieftains in Plateau State also defected to the APC when the APC and Buhari visited the state for campaign.</div>
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<b><a href="http://nigerianewsroom.blogspot.com/2015/01/pauline-tallen-others-dump-pdp-for-apc.html">The defectors, who were led by a former Minister of Science and Technology, Pauline Tallen</a></b>, were officially received into the APC during the mass rally held at the Rwang Pam Township Stadium, Jos.</div>
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Former Minister Tallen, who was also a former Plateau State Deputy Governor and governorship candidate in the state in 2011, was received together with other PDP chieftains that included Mr Sambo Wampuk, a former Director General of the ITF and a former House of Reps member, Leonard Dilkon.</div>
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Also last week, about 435 PDP members in Makarfi LGA of Kaduna State left the party for the APC during a campaign rally for the APC’s governorship candidate, Malam Nasir el-Rufa'i, in Makarfi, the hometown of a former governor, Alhaji Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi.</div>
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El-Rufai’s campaign spokesman Samuel Aruwan cited poor internal party politics in the PDP as one of the reasons given by the defectors, adding that they also promised to work for the success of the APC.</div>
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A former DG of NEMA, Alhaji Salihu Makarfi, and a former Information Commissioner, Saidu Adamu, who had earlier defected to the APC from the PDP also took part in the rally.</div>
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President Jonathan was said to have suspended his Akure rally about two weeks ago, following the defection of some aggrieved PDP leaders to the APC in Ondo State.</div>
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Among those who defected were Mr Femi Agagu, a former Chief of Staff to late Governor Segun Agagu, two former Speakers of the Ondo State House of Assembly, five former Commissioners in the state, eight former LGA chairmen as well as scores of ex-Councillors.</div>
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On Wednesday, January 14, 2015, the ranks of the PDP in the House of Reps further depleted as eight more members defected from the party. Four of the defectors joined the rival APC.</div>
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The same day, the PDP lost nine senators to the APC and other political parties because of the outcome of last month’s primary elections across the country, thereby depleting the membership strength of the party in the Senate.</div>
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Consequently, President Jonathan was said to have met with the PDP leaders last Sunday behind closed doors at his Campaign Office, Legacy House, Maitama, Abuja, to address the gale of defections. But will his intervention help save the situation before the elections? Hopefully!</div>

Panic In PDP Over Elections' Eve High Profile Defections

Barely 2 weeks to the 2015 presidential election, the political atmosphere is charged again as high-profile political figures across the country have been moving from one political party to another. …

26 Jan 2015

Buhari Okays US Visa Ban Threat To Deter Election Violence

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<b>The All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, has endorsed United States' call for free and fair election and non-violence in the February general polls. ‎</b></div>
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On the US threat to deny Visa to politicians that engage in electoral violence and malpractices, the APC flag bearer said he fully endorsed the measure to serve as deterrence and give credibility to Nigeria’s democracy and electoral system.</div>
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A statement signed by the APC presidential campaign Media and Publicity Director Malam Garba Shehu said it fully identifies with Secretary of State John Kerry’s appeal to political parties to ensure free and fair and non-violent polls.</div>
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The spokesperson said all responsible politicians should support the objectives of free, fair and non-violent polls as advocated by the US government. </div>
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He however appealed to the Jonathan-led administration to show commitment to free and fair elections and non-violence.</div>
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The Buhari campaign also called on other members of the international community to show active interest in the attitude of the PDP administration to these issues of non-violence and free and fair elections.</div>
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The U.S. and other members of the international community should not leave the Jonathan administration to its devices or whims and caprices, adding that the government must be held to these commitments to avoid any hanky-panky during the elections, the spokesperson said.</div>

Buhari Okays US Visa Ban Threat To Deter Election Violence

The All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, has endorsed United States' call for free and fair election and non-violence in the February general polls. ‎ On the US t…

26 Jan 2015

I'm Not A Foreigner, Buhari's Wife Cries Out

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf4N1H4W1hEDdT_eo7oi9B1VzEOV6-BMbpP5SvFOEZqE5MvpELiDISJ7h_Wy64YKWxBeaROleWVC2hftS_x0Wr4SN-CXyLwDNKC0PoqeIBCxvEAnnUtCKnkkE3Y4_iOkiFbwlzzmXsL-fu/s1600/BuhariFam1bc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf4N1H4W1hEDdT_eo7oi9B1VzEOV6-BMbpP5SvFOEZqE5MvpELiDISJ7h_Wy64YKWxBeaROleWVC2hftS_x0Wr4SN-CXyLwDNKC0PoqeIBCxvEAnnUtCKnkkE3Y4_iOkiFbwlzzmXsL-fu/s1600/BuhariFam1bc.jpg" /></a></div>
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<b>Mrs Aisha Buhari, wife of General Muhammadu Buhari, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress [APC], has said that she is not a foreigner as being speculated in some quarters.</b></div>
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She spoke through Mrs. Deborah Iliya, a chieftain of APC in Kaduna State who represented her at the public presentation of a book, <b>"Wind of Change: 72 Leadership Qualities of Buhari"</b>, written by a civil rights activist and Executive Director of Gatekeepers Foundation, Mr. Blessing Agbomhere, on Friday.</div>
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"Let me use this opportunity to deliver a message because there may not be another opportunity to deliver it. We know what is going on in the country today. It has reached the stage that people are hunting for Buhari not to reach that day of election.</div>
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"They have also said that Aisha Buhari is not a Nigerian. Aisha said I should tell everyone that she is a Nigerian. Does it even matter if she is not a Nigerian? What has that got to do with what is happening in this country?" Iliya stated.</div>
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Iliya further quoted Buhari's wife to have rooted for a woman president in Nigeria in the nearest future as part of the total change package.</div>
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She said, "Aisha said she is pleased because the author is a young man; this is an indication that our youths have always understood the problems of this country and they are really pulling us together to fight a common front and that is change.</div>
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"We need change in Nigeria. For the past six years, we have been suffering; I wish a woman has been President we wouldn't have been in this mess. So women, she (Aisha) has asked that I should encourage you to come out and be part of nation building. We are powerful; we are strong and stronger than the men.</div>
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"Please support women and next time we will have a woman President in Nigeria."</div>
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The APC deputy national publicity secretary, Mr. Timi Frank, said at the event that the call by the National Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki (retd.), for the postponement of the 2015 elections signified the coming of another 'June 12' and that the party and all Nigerians would resist the postponement of the February elections.</div>

I'm Not A Foreigner, Buhari's Wife Cries Out

Mrs Aisha Buhari, wife of General Muhammadu Buhari, presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress [APC], has said that she is not a foreigner as being speculated in some quarters. She spoke…

26 Jan 2015

Buhari Urges Jonathan To Call Dokubo, Tompolo, Others To Order

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2oIoK8v8USI4pf3h6VWa-3_ovBVDLWB3DXdUUrAFTVKrhQzk4i09GbjkSY8qVKZL93Bxe19w99msR7OnyZrMP6ArzMDV_1VtpxL8hVx_5lsMQAzsTxtsP3IsfMS2zv-5O6ic8eFloYq8C/s1600/Buhari+Video.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2oIoK8v8USI4pf3h6VWa-3_ovBVDLWB3DXdUUrAFTVKrhQzk4i09GbjkSY8qVKZL93Bxe19w99msR7OnyZrMP6ArzMDV_1VtpxL8hVx_5lsMQAzsTxtsP3IsfMS2zv-5O6ic8eFloYq8C/s1600/Buhari+Video.JPG" /></a></div>
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<b>The All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Muhammadu, Buhari has urged President Goodluck Jonathan and his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), to call the Niger Delta ex-militants to order who have threatened to wage war against the country in the event that Jonathan loses the February 14 presidential election.</b></div>
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A statement by the APC Campaign Media and Publicity Director Mallam Garba Shehu said the ultimatum by the ex-militants is not only a barbaric threat on the sovereignty of the country but goes against the spirit and letter of the non-violence pact to which Jonathan is a signatory.</div>
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The APC campaign spokesperson observed that the declaration of war against the state is causing panic and concern among Nigerians who are already embattled by so many challenges particularly of insecurity, which have been begging for attention, <b><a href="http://dailytrust.com.ng/daily/top-stories/45202-buhari-urges-jonathan-to-rein-in-dukobo-tompolo-over-war-threats">Daily Trust</a></b> reports.</div>
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The Buhari campaign reminded Jonathan that as Commander-in-Chief, it is his primary responsibility to ensure the protection of the citizens and their properties and that such open declaration of war by the ex-militants and several other acts of violence needed to be denounced by him in the interest of democracy, unity and stability of Nigeria.</div>
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He said these drum beats by elements associated with Jonathan needed to change to peace beats so that the citizens, especially the youth need to be encouraged that the sustenance of the country's democracy is better achieved through the ballot box and not the bullet. </div>
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:Jonathan should make good on his declaration that his 're-election is not worth the blood of any Nigerian', by calling these war mongers in his domain to order," the campaign said.</div>
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It noted that the latest threat is not an isolated act as the threat on General Buhari by Governor Ayo Fayose and the attacks on the party's offices and rally in Rivers are pointers of coordinated insurrection against the APC ahead of next month's general elections.</div>
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The campaign added that "‎it is disconcerting that the president has not immediately addressed such treasonable actions by persons who in the past have taken up arms against the Republic, and whose amnesty is dependent on their good behaviour and complete disarmament. </div>
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"The president needs to remember that he took an oath, as Commander-in-Chief, to protect Nigeria against all threats, external and internal. In this case, his silence could be misconstrued as an implicit approval of this declaration of war, seeing as the meeting of the warlords and subsequent declaration of war were from his own backyard, his home state," the statement said.</div>

Buhari Urges Jonathan To Call Dokubo, Tompolo, Others To Order

The All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Muhammadu, Buhari has urged President Goodluck Jonathan and his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), to call the Niger Delta ex-milit…

26 Jan 2015

The Common Sense Debate On The Islamisation Of Nigeria - By Simi Fajemirokun

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJryGpFXSszEsZd1aAZSj9lWVu9dI9ewHD2UOkeQzVM6palAOut-5Ln4xjP1hdSvAHdkKAIoNefE5WgHrds499lbyoGgffmVluS4I82rr3FCPluhCrSnz92xXigVYxbMZB2tWPKhgIKbNa/s1600/Senate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJryGpFXSszEsZd1aAZSj9lWVu9dI9ewHD2UOkeQzVM6palAOut-5Ln4xjP1hdSvAHdkKAIoNefE5WgHrds499lbyoGgffmVluS4I82rr3FCPluhCrSnz92xXigVYxbMZB2tWPKhgIKbNa/s1600/Senate.jpg" /></a></div>
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<b>There is plenty talk of how one candidate or party will ‘Islamize’ the Federal Republic of Nigeria if it assumes power. As ridiculous as that sounds, ‘silence being the best answer for a fool’ doesn’t really work in this clime. In fact, silence translates to endorsement in some instances, so let’s actually explore the feasibility of this expensive argument.</b></div>
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It is important to shed light on the governance structure of the Federal Republic of Nigeria so that we understand the prerequisite steps needed to ‘Islamize’ the country. This is germane because in Nigeria we tend to ‘put the cart before the horse’. We act without thinking things through and just taking a walk down any street would reveal this culture. Examples abound such as roads built without proper drainage systems; plazas/malls built without any thought to parking space; millions spent on a Cinderella wedding only to rent a small pitiful flat; and beautifully adorned gates with poorly furnished homes just to mention a few. As you can see, it is a common trait of the system and has evolved into a culture of the people.</div>
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Nigeria operates a federal system with 3 arms of government: The Executive, The Legislature and Judiciary. According to the constitution:</div>
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<ol>
<li>The Executive-<b>Carries out the law</b> and is made up of the President, Vice-President and The Federal Executive Council consisting of 36 ministers appointed by the President. The President shall be the Chief Executive of the Federation and Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces of the federation.</li>
<li>The Judiciary- <b>Interprets the law</b> and is made up of the highest court- the Supreme Court, followed by the Court of Appeal, High Court, Sharia Courts and Customary Court.</li>
<li>The Legislature- <b>Makes the law</b>, provides representation and oversight. It consists of 2 chambers- the House of Representatives and Senate.</li>
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The constitution as the supreme law of the nation seeks to promote good governance. It enshrines a system of checks and balance to ensure no one branch of government becomes too powerful. The evidence of separation of powers can be seen in the fact that each branch of government can change the acts of other branches such as:</div>
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<li>The President can veto laws by the National Assembly</li>
<li>The National Assembly confirms or rejects the President’s appointment and can remove the President from office in exceptional circumstances</li>
<li>The Judiciary can overturn unconstitutional laws; and are appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate.</li>
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Now this talk of Islamizing Nigeria didn’t come from thin air but has its roots from the time of Usman Dan Fodio’s Jihad over 200 years ago (1804-1810) which swept across most of the north and reached down south to the north of Lagos. Additionally, the growth of Islamic fundamentalism at different phases of Nigeria’s history has continued to raise age-old fears and suspicions. On the other hand, in the South and parts of the North, Nigeria was being Christianized by the missionaries; and with the advent of Independence, the battle of religion has been meshed with politics. This has created a very toxic and tense interplay between politics, religion and ethnicity where in recent times religion has trumped ethnicity. But all in all, the beauty of Nigeria’s democracy is that a semblance of a system exists and the stateless era of Jihad and Crusades has truly gone if only the people choose to let go of it too.</div>
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Now lets return to the possibility of our billion-dollar question.</div>
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For a President to Islamize Nigeria, he’ll need to:</div>
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<li>Appoint only Sheiks and Jihadists as Ministers to all the 36 ministries in the Federal Republic of Nigeria,</li>
<li>Appoint extremists as head of parastatals and all federal executive bodies such as National Population Commission, INEC, FIRS etc,</li>
<li>Appoint an extremist Grand Khadi as the Chief Justice of Nigeria,</li>
<li>Ensure the National Assembly (who are elected by their constituencies in the 36 states, 109 Senators and 360 Representatives [469 total]) are overwhelmingly extreme Islamists to be able to easily secure 2/3 of both chambers needed to change the constitution,</li>
<li>Ensure the State House of Assembly in all the 36 States are also filled with extremists to secure the 2/3 votes out of the 1,152 possible votes to change all laws to fit the Sharia code,</li>
<li>Institutionalize Islam as the only acceptable and state approved religion and then ensure all the Service Chiefs are Islamists to secure and legitimize the propagation of Islam by force and to reduce the monopoly on violence that terrorists groups currently have,</li>
<li>Select Special Advisers that are Islamic Scholars and provide solid expertise on establishing an efficient government grounded in Islamic law.</li>
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How practical does the above sound? It is almost like assuming that a Roman Catholic on assuming the office of the President of Nigeria, will damn the constitution and transform Nigeria into a replica of the Holy See/Roman Curia.</div>
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Unfortunately, the above can only happen when you completely obliterate this very diverse Nigeria with over 500 ethnic groups and 250 languages to achieve a completely homogenous country. You might be able to achieve that by borrowing the technology from the Hollywood movie ‘Men In Black’ to blank out the memory of all non-Muslims in the country while filling their new blank minds with an Islamist identity. But with a population of over 170 million and half of them non-Muslims, one might need to also rent those scary aliens from the movie as well to threaten to annihilate the masses if they don’t convert. This will scare the life out of people who will now be directed to make use of every INEC office or LGA office to stand in line and collect their new Islamist identity.</div>
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Outside of establishing strong links with Hollywood to execute the audacious plan above, it is safe to say that ‘Islamizing’ the sovereign entity called Nigeria is impossible. The suspicions and fears that have transferred from generation to generation are mere illusions under a democratic system. Our battles are completely human struggles to determine who gets what, when, where and how; wrapped in religious garments by political entrepreneurs.</div>
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Someone who didn’t have any ideas for leadership had an even brighter idea to distract the people with baseless religious fears. This strategy intends to sharpen our differences, fracture the society and wish away the complexities of the land while pushing us into the binary world of ‘us’ and ‘them’. This ensures that the people are too busy fighting each other instead of demanding better leadership. This has kept the citizens living as slaves in their own land while they strive to live in a heavenly kingdom that doesn’t exist on earth.</div>
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For the record, the constitution expressly states that the federal government shall not adopt any religion (Chapter I, Part II, Section 10). It also ensures that the Local to State and Federal Governments all have to abide by the federal character to reflect the constituency it represents (Chapter II, Section 14,article 3).</div>
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On a final note, we must question our basis for prioritizing our love for religion over our desire for development. In the ancient world, the idea of God actually propelled people to build magnificent structures that in today’s world still attract a pilgrimage as people scramble to see such wonders of the world. This proves that this fiery overzealous practice of hate (aka religion), leaves no legacy but robs us of the present and dims the promise of tomorrow.</div>
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Nigeria should stop shaming the black race by its chronic underdevelopment and its intense, sordid love affair with mediocrity. When Time magazine regarded Nigeria as the ‘First among equals’ in 1960 and referenced it as ‘Africa’s super power’ it was not based on its size or natural resources alone but in the strength and beauty of its diversity. Why we have decided to use this as a noose to hang ourselves is truly the billion-dollar question?</div>
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For those who choose to live in fear of a 200 year old suspicion who’s manifestation in modern Nigeria is nothing like the organized exercise used to boost trade along the Sahel-please answer the following questions; does the Benue or Niger river flow based on who is Christian or Muslim? Do the tomato farms in Jigawa grow based on the religion of the persons that till the land? Do the banana plantations in Ogoni land grow based on the planters brand of religion? If no, then as these things grow and bloom based on effort, vision and consistency so also should Nigeria just bloom without strangling itself with religious agendas that should remain strictly in the personal space of the citizenry.</div>
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<b>Simi Fajemirokun</b> </div>
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<b>Source: <a href="http://omojuwa.com/2015/01/the-common-sense-debate-on-the-islamisation-of-nigeria-simi-fajemirokun/">Omojuwa</a></b></div>

The Common Sense Debate On The Islamisation Of Nigeria - By Simi Fajemirokun

There is plenty talk of how one candidate or party will ‘Islamize’ the Federal Republic of Nigeria if it assumes power. As ridiculous as that sounds, ‘silence being the best answer for a fool’ doesn’…

26 Jan 2015

Teacher Admits Having Sex With Her 18-Year Old Student

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtBIVS46kTcOqHpqznvFIorqVqA-_zzYDg5gGUq-E4tDXBCDqXHXIZ0xvLAZbQwGG71hkFm6iuqEeQI5afP8KiWbh3deh1Te_uw_AJbScTwEDspcvaALSAe0Hq5JiZhlmxxsN8xQ-ZVyi9/s1600/Poe+Sex+Scandal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtBIVS46kTcOqHpqznvFIorqVqA-_zzYDg5gGUq-E4tDXBCDqXHXIZ0xvLAZbQwGG71hkFm6iuqEeQI5afP8KiWbh3deh1Te_uw_AJbScTwEDspcvaALSAe0Hq5JiZhlmxxsN8xQ-ZVyi9/s1600/Poe+Sex+Scandal.jpg" /></a></div>
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<b>A high school teacher in Oklahoma, United States of America has admitted to sleeping with an 18-year-old student.</b></div>
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32-year-old Daresa Poe was questioned by the Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation last Tuesday, January 20 after it was alleged that she had sex with the student in his pick-up truck.</div>
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Daresa Poe it is alleged, has been in a relationship with the male student since December.</div>
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In an in-depth confession, Daresa Poe admitted to the "horrible mistake of having sexual intercourse with a student."</div>
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Daresa wrote the confession in an affidavit to the police where she regretted her actions and express how sorry she is.</div>
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<i>"I have made a horrible mistake. I have let my judgment falter and I am embarrassed and mortified for the decisions I have made in the last two weeks. I have had sexual intercourse with a student. I am so very sorry for the (decisions) I have made. I would take it back in a heartbeat if the chance was given to me. I hold a position of importance where people and student[s] look up to me and I have failed. For this I am truly sorry,"</i> part of the affidavit reads.</div>
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Both have also admitted to having sex in Poe's home, in the student’s vehicle, and several times in the Waynoka High School teacher’s lounge.</div>
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Under Oklahoma law, sexual relationship between a student and teacher is illegal until the student is 21.</div>
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So Poe has been hit with a six second-degree rape charge and one charge of sexual battery.</div>

Teacher Admits Having Sex With Her 18-Year Old Student

A high school teacher in Oklahoma, United States of America has admitted to sleeping with an 18-year-old student. 32-year-old Daresa Poe was questioned by the Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation l…

26 Jan 2015

[Tweets]: Zahra Buhari Defends Dad On Certificate Saga

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFFPrCyvYObpSjRmKD966w_aSgv5leQUacaHWP511mALCd4IS0KfRO78FcT9IdnEC39PWaS6uumF240S6nO8t0phyphenhyphenhNg9B9BTYYv6LXKfAs1khH4w70LW-Mp5c3ogX_88psHvZGr83z7Sa/s1600/zahra-buhari-e1421220468897.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFFPrCyvYObpSjRmKD966w_aSgv5leQUacaHWP511mALCd4IS0KfRO78FcT9IdnEC39PWaS6uumF240S6nO8t0phyphenhyphenhNg9B9BTYYv6LXKfAs1khH4w70LW-Mp5c3ogX_88psHvZGr83z7Sa/s1600/zahra-buhari-e1421220468897.png" /></a></div>
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<b>Daughter of the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Muhammadu Buhari has spoken about the certificate saga that has besieged the campaign of  her dad.</b></div>
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Oppositions have been alleging that Muhammadu Buhari does not possess a secondary school certificate and is thus not qualified to contest the February 14 presidential election.</div>
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Zahra Buhari has however come to the defense of her dad, stating that her dad wouldn't have been able to run some posts in the military if he was illiterate. </div>
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<blockquote align="center" class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
About 53yrs ago he acquired this certificate. During his military years he held posts that couldn't possibly be run by an illiterate 1/2<br />
— Zahra (@Zahra3_) <a href="https://twitter.com/Zahra3_/status/559670613162590208">January 26, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script></div>
<blockquote align="center" class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Mind you, these were posts he managed very well. He ran for office 3 times, this is the forth time and now his certificate matters😏 2/2<br />
— Zahra (@Zahra3_) <a href="https://twitter.com/Zahra3_/status/559671043250733056">January 26, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>

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Zahra Buari's social media accounts were made public a fortnight ago; she came a trending topic on Twitter on the day her photos hit the internet. She has become  a Twitter favourite with her followers' count growing by  the day.</div>

[Tweets]: Zahra Buhari Defends Dad On Certificate Saga

Daughter of the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Muhammadu Buhari has spoken about the certificate saga that has besieged the campaign of her dad. Oppositions have been alleg…

26 Jan 2015

Badoo Romance Goes Sour As Lover Kills Boyfriend In Port Harcourt

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuEkf7OuIXqpZOslG3GEJKxtYQzShuqh6YnWc0ZvR__JdUKTF1OB0XrejQ9ePtyF0scHsfNefYGQrPc01K6GMEsOS_HRAznf81GG7QSlRR1EGdaz7fopxRW-JESXRDoeOonCb9OwMBhOso/s1600/Badoo+Love.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuEkf7OuIXqpZOslG3GEJKxtYQzShuqh6YnWc0ZvR__JdUKTF1OB0XrejQ9ePtyF0scHsfNefYGQrPc01K6GMEsOS_HRAznf81GG7QSlRR1EGdaz7fopxRW-JESXRDoeOonCb9OwMBhOso/s1600/Badoo+Love.jpg" /></a></div>
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<b>A student of Rivers State Polytechnic, Loretta Odikagbo, has been arrested by the Criminal Investigation Department of the Rivers State Police Command for allegedly killing her Badoo lover, Charles Bankole Orisanya.</b></div>
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Miss Odikagbo, who met the deceased on a social network, B<b>adoo</b>, was said to have killed her boyfriend due to his inability to fulfill his promise to her.</div>
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The deceased, who was in his early 30s, was a civil engineer and a staff of Halliburton Company at Trans-Amadi area of Port Harcourt and a native Akoko, Ondo State.</div>
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The deceased was reportedly killed on the 19th of September 2014 when he was suffocated by his girlfriend alongside two others with a polythene bag.</div>
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The suspects, who have been on the run, were in December 2014 arrested after crack detectives investigating the case were able to resolve the mystery as they worked on an item picked from the crime scene. This eventually led to the arrest of Loretta and one of her accomplices while another is still at large.</div>
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According reports, the deceased was said to have invited Miss Odikagbo over to his place on the 19th of September last year, who in turn hired two men who followed her to her lover’s house and hid themselves under the staircase.</div>
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Below is an interview the prime suspect, Miss Odikagbo granted <b>Tribune</b> Newspapers:</div>
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"I am from Rumuomasi, Obio/Akpor Local Government Area of Rivers State. I was born on May 2, 1988. I hold a Diploma in Mass Communication and was to resume for my HND in January 2015 but I was arrested in December 2014.</div>
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"I asked a friend, Moses to help harass a man who was my boyfriend but is now deceased. I met Bankole (Orisanya) through a social network called Badoo in January 2014 and we got intimate online since he was at the rig offshore when we met. He was there for two months and we became internet lovers. We were chatting and exchanging pictures. When he came back, he invited me over and we started dating.</div>
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"The basis of it all was money. When I met him, it was all promises upon promises. Along the line, the sex was going on and the money was not coming. He would give me ₦10,000 or ₦15,000 but that was not what I expected from him. Also when we first met, to me, he was a single man but along the line, I discovered he was married.</div>
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"We talked about it but he didn't want the affair to end. He said that it would not be a problem and he could handle it. But I only continued with him because I was waiting for the promises to be fulfilled. I was not interested in marriage to him. We had a bit of misunderstanding concerning money and our relationship. I asked my friend who is also my in-law to help me so that I could get the money forcefully from Bankole.</div>
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"Along the line, I could not control my anger so I asked my in-law to come help harass him to get what I could get from him and move on with my life.</div>
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"On a particular night, he called me and I went to his place with my in-law and one other guy. I felt it was an opportunity to deal with him. We went to his residence and I managed to sneak the two men into the compound. I hid them under the stairs. I went in to Bankole and we made love. After we were done, I left him in the bedroom and went to the kitchen as if I wanted to drink water, and let the guys in. I made it look like both of us were being robbed. We met Bankole in the sitting room; probably trying to know what kept me away for long.</div>
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"There was no light. I didn't see any gun. My in-law was holding a tape while the other guy held a torch and something that looked like a gun. Bankole and I went on our knees and the guys were threatening us, asking for money. My lover told them that he had money in his account so he gave them his ATM card pin number.</div>
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"My-in law tied his hands with the tape and the second guy acted like I had to be the one to follow him to the ATM. It was raining heavily that night. It was almost midnight. We left for the ATM and I withdrew a little over ₦120, 000 and paid the guy off. I gave him about ₦30,000 or thereabout. My in-law came to meet me at the ATM and I also gave him almost ₦50, 000."</div>
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However, Loretta denied knowing what led to the death of the victim.</div>
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"I took Bankole’s LG phone while his laptop was brought to me the following day by my in-law. I can’t remember what the other guy took from Bankole's house. I didn't know anything about the polythene that was used to cover his head.”</div>
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"I didn't have the intention of dating him anymore; I just wanted to move on. I only knew about Bankole's death when I was arrested."</div>
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However, Odikagbo’s in-law, Moses, who hails from Akwa Ibom State gave a different account of what happened,</div>
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He said: "Loretta called me and said that she and her boyfriend were having some issues. She said he owed her some money and had refused to ‘settle’ her. She said she would call me to go and harass him, promising to notify me whenever he called her. Before then, she gave me some money to buy a torchlight, which I did.</div>
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"On a day, she called me and came to meet me. We went to Rumuomasi to pick another guy called Winkoro. He refused to be part of the plan and we left him. As we walked, we saw a boy whom I knew but don't know his name. I introduced him to her and she explained her intention to him and he joined us.</div>
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"She took us to the man’s house and kept us under the staircase. Earlier, she gave the other guy a rope and masking tape and I was with a torch light and an iron object that looked like a gun. After a while, she called us in and we got into the kitchen. Minutes later, according to her instruction, we got into the room where she was with her boyfriend.</div>
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"I pointed the torch at the man and said: <i>'Na you dey owe our sister and you no wan pay'</i>. The lover boy pleaded that he was going to pay; that we should calm down. The guy with us tied the man’s legs with a rope and taped his hands. Loretta stood up and slapped the man repeatedly. After that, she asked the man of money but he said he had no money at home. He pointed at his ATM cards and gave Loretta the pin number.</div>
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"She and the other guy left for the ATM and I stayed with our victim. I later called her to confirm if the pin was right and she said yes. I asked if I should start coming but she asked me to wait at the man’s house. Before she left, she and the other guy packed some items like laptop, phone. When she came back, she went to the man’s room.</div>
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"She came out, went to the kitchen, brought a polythene bag and said that if I did not assist her in killing the man, if the bubble burst, I would be the first person she would mention. She covered the man's head with the polythene bag and sat on his head while I assisted her in holding the man’s neck until he became motionless.</div>
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"Loretta gave me ₦28,000. I was arrested on December 10, 2014. She was the one who led the police to me. I took three shirts and a sandal from the man’s house. Taking the man’s life was not in the initial plan."</div>
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On the relationship between them, Moses said that he and Loretta used to drink alcohol together while she was also a chain smoker. Loretta confirmed this and added that she used to smoke marijuana.</div>

Badoo Romance Goes Sour As Lover Kills Boyfriend In Port Harcourt

A student of Rivers State Polytechnic, Loretta Odikagbo, has been arrested by the Criminal Investigation Department of the Rivers State Police Command for allegedly killing her Badoo lover, Charles B…

26 Jan 2015

Six Ogun LP Members Die In Car Crash

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP-UI22P8vpV33NziTAkYrb7O4m1aLF4l_JpeeKFkJqJKDaILkPbtDaITrt75qOUbqtPFNa3jWpiuFlzBD2AH8FssjKkky1l6Ry2HhCEMtjmlnf3jb5YKboNegnSNsbE94ub24kkyGY0Fo/s1600/accident-crash-700x336.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhP-UI22P8vpV33NziTAkYrb7O4m1aLF4l_JpeeKFkJqJKDaILkPbtDaITrt75qOUbqtPFNa3jWpiuFlzBD2AH8FssjKkky1l6Ry2HhCEMtjmlnf3jb5YKboNegnSNsbE94ub24kkyGY0Fo/s1600/accident-crash-700x336.jpg" /></a></div>
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<b>Six members of the Labour Party in Ogun State on Thursday, January 22, lost their lives in an auto crash.</b></div>
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According to <b>City People</b>, two prominent leaders of the Labour Party, Ibrahim Oladele and Wale Oke alongside four other members were traveling along Owode-Idi-Iroko Road, Yewa South Local Government Area of the state when the bus they were travelling in had a head-on collision with another vehicle.</div>
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The six of them were said to be on their way to Abeokuta to participate in the party’s programme on Thursday, January 22 when they lost their lives.</div>
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According to <i>City People</i> sources, smugglers who were being pursued by men of Nigerian Customs Service, rammed into the bus that the politicians were traveling with.  </div>
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The State Secretary of the party, Sunday Oginni, confirmed the incident to <i>City People</i>, describing it as a loss.</div>
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<i>"The party lost six grass roots politicians to the accident. The accident is a setback to us as a party because the people that lost their lives were very active party leaders who we used as field soldiers for our campaign,"</i> Sunday Oguini bemoaned the accident.</div>

Six Ogun LP Members Die In Car Crash

Six members of the Labour Party in Ogun State on Thursday, January 22, lost their lives in an auto crash. According to City People, two prominent leaders of the Labour Party, Ibrahim Oladele and Wale…

26 Jan 2015

Weird!!! Tanzanian Politician Beheaded Over Alleged Adultery

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<b>A Tanzanian politician, Richard Madirisha, has been beheaded for allegedly committing adultery.</b></div>
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According to reports, five men invaded the home of the 31-year-old renowned politician, Richard Madirisha, and beheaded him over claims that he committed adultery.</div>
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The gang went ahead to chop off part of Richard Madirisha's body including his genitals, hands and legs and subsequently cooked them outside the house in the southern Katavi region of Tanzania.</div>
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According to AFP, a local Police official, Dhahiri Kidavashari, confirmed the news and revealed that three of the five-man gang have been arrested.</div>

Weird!!! Tanzanian Politician Beheaded Over Alleged Adultery

A Tanzanian politician, Richard Madirisha, has been beheaded for allegedly committing adultery. According to reports, five men invaded the home of the 31-year-old renowned politician, Richard Madiris…

26 Jan 2015

Zambia Swears In New President

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6TTJLTPKcDrNtkDZvcq5RW63qiVn27Kq35icrLUngoJ9EZNCBrEfgsS22qyNnVcD0MPqRCCjFnPDdAMM_wzQuypm_Xe9wIZiepLPRbqlTG9swzA5pCknEIgo39aMn1wYMbrIMvMhahm2o/s1600/Edgar-Lungu-Zambia-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6TTJLTPKcDrNtkDZvcq5RW63qiVn27Kq35icrLUngoJ9EZNCBrEfgsS22qyNnVcD0MPqRCCjFnPDdAMM_wzQuypm_Xe9wIZiepLPRbqlTG9swzA5pCknEIgo39aMn1wYMbrIMvMhahm2o/s1600/Edgar-Lungu-Zambia-2.jpg" /></a></div>
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<b>Zambia has sworn in its sixth President in a ceremony which took place on Sunday, January 25, in Lusaka.</b></div>
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New leader, Edgar Lungu replaces <b><a href="http://nigerianewsroom.blogspot.com/2014/10/n-e-w-s-f-l-s-h-zambian-president.html">President Michael Sata who died in October 2014</a></b>.</div>
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Lungu will rule for the remainder of Sata's term until the country conducts fresh elections in September 2016.</div>
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The 58-year-old won 48.3 percent of the votes to beat rival, Hakainde Hichilema who garnered 46.7 percent.</div>
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"I am humbled eternally and debted to you all, my fellow citizens," Lungu said during his inauguration ceremony.</div>
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"The bottom line is that we want the country to go foward and to banish poverty in our midst," he added.</div>
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Hichilema however contested the results saying:</div>
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"The election was stolen and does not reflect the will of the people."</div>
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Sata's death led to Vice President, <b><a href="http://nigerianewsroom.blogspot.com/2014/10/zambias-guy-scott-becomes-africas-first.html">Guy Scott being named interim President, making him Africa's first white ruler in 20 years</a></b>.</div>

Zambia Swears In New President

Zambia has sworn in its sixth President in a ceremony which took place on Sunday, January 25, in Lusaka. New leader, Edgar Lungu replaces President Michael Sata who died in October 2014. Lungu will r…

26 Jan 2015

Nigerian Passport Among The Least Powerful In The World

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBiLsvFv9eKX2wkK8pbw5ANGFcW2L8DAlhJdPGACfS-kvwAMEyLWqYUkPhbywZ11YR7dZKHKqdBe4dgPpoLmkaEHM5_avBNSlDa6F7qj0sa4OykA9R7WfDlUI9G15Bm1Wlf_sz0NqBiOYp/s1600/Nigerianpassport1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBiLsvFv9eKX2wkK8pbw5ANGFcW2L8DAlhJdPGACfS-kvwAMEyLWqYUkPhbywZ11YR7dZKHKqdBe4dgPpoLmkaEHM5_avBNSlDa6F7qj0sa4OykA9R7WfDlUI9G15Bm1Wlf_sz0NqBiOYp/s1600/Nigerianpassport1.jpg" /></a></div>
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<b>The Nigerian passport has been listed as one of the least powerful in the world by a GOOD infographic.</b></div>
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The Nigerian travel document falls short due to the fact that it only gives free access to 47 countries while that of the United States gives its citizens free access to 172 other countries.</div>
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A United Kingdom passport is also powerful as it guarantees the bearer access to 173 other countries.</div>
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Other passports which provide restricted access include that of Afghanistan which allows entry into 28 countries; Iraq, 31; Lebanon 38; Sri Lanka, 38; Sudan 38; Nepal, 37; Eritrea, 36; Palestinian territories, 36; Pakistan, 32 and Somalia, 32.</div>
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In the infographic map created by Ricky Lynn of GOOD, countries are color-coded based on the "power" of their passports.</div>
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The darker in color, the more freedom that country's residents have to travel. Lighter orange colors mean residents can visit fewer countries with their passports.</div>
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Nigerian Passport Among The Least Powerful In The World

The Nigerian passport has been listed as one of the least powerful in the world by a GOOD infographic. The Nigerian travel document falls short due to the fact that it only gives free access to 47 co…

26 Jan 2015

Don't Postpone Polls, US Warns Nigeria

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<b>The US has warned Nigeria against any plans to postpone the 2015 general elections, which are slated to begin in February.</b></div>
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This was reportedly stated by the US Secretary of State, John Kerry during a visit to Nigeria on Sunday, January 25.</div>
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<b><a href="http://nigerianewsroom.blogspot.com/2015/01/photos-john-kerry-arrive-nigeria-meets.html">Kerry met with President Goodluck Jonathan and the Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Muhammadu Buhari</a></b> in a bid to canvass for peaceful elections.</div>
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"Given the stakes, it’s absolutely critical that these elections are conducted peacefully. It is imperative that Nigeria holds its elections on time," Kerry reportedly said.</div>
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"Nobody gains by violence, nobody gains by turning a political disagreement into a killing spree. The proof will be in the actions that are taken in the course of the election and afterwards. Anyone who participates in, plans or calls for violence against the civilian population must be held accountable, including by ineligibility for an American visa. Perpetrators of such violence would not be welcome in the US," the Secretary of State added.</div>
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Nigeria’s National Security Adviser, <b><a href="http://nigerianewsroom.blogspot.com/2015/01/jonathans-security-adviser-calls-on.html">Sambo Dasuki on Thursday, January 22, called for the elections to be postponed while speaking in London at a think-tank</a></b>.</div>

Don't Postpone Polls, US Warns Nigeria

The US has warned Nigeria against any plans to postpone the 2015 general elections, which are slated to begin in February. This was reportedly stated by the US Secretary of State, John Kerry during a…

26 Jan 2015

"It's Our Stormy Season", Toyin Aimakhu and Husband Speak On Rumoured Split

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<b>Over the weekend, reports of a marriage split between Toyin Aimakhu and her husband Adeniyi Johnson surfaced online.</b></div>
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The <b>Nollywood</b> actress and her husband have responded to the allegations, both releasing a statement on their official <i><b>Instagram</b></i> accounts.</div>
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The couple admit that their marriage has been facing the storm but that they are trying hard at keeping it together.</div>
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According to the couple, <i>'every marriage has it's stormy season and they just experienced their stormy and trying times'.</i></div>
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The statement reads below...</div>
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<i>"With the heart of appreciation and sincerity we write: There's no fire without smoke.. for every marriage and journey there are moments of storm, that was our stormy and trying times.</i></div>
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<i>"The recent event obviously made us know how important our marriage is and that a lot of lives and destiny are attached to ours, we never knew the weight our marriage carried until now, we discovered a lot of destiny and glory hangs on our own...</i></div>
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<i>"May we not let GOD and you down.... To the bloggers who blogged we appreciate you, u might think you wrote a news but it turned out to restore our happiness and home back, so to all the bloggers we say a big thank you.</i></div>
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<i>"We've learnt our lessons, corrected our mistakes and choose to move on. This event made us know who our friends and well wishers are...</i></div>
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<i>"We are short of words and filled with gratitude 1st to our parents, our spiritual parents, adopted parents, friends, colleagues and fanssssss...OMG!!! Our fans you guys are the best... for your calls, text messages, mails, pings, whatsapp messages, facebook comments and messages.... we love you all...</i></div>
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<i>"The bible says when we pass through fire it won't burn us and through water it won't drown us and whenever we pass through storms it will not over power us(isaiah 43:2-3).</i></div>
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<i>"May God still all storms in our lives and make everyone happy.... whatever you hear from us henceforth shall be goodnews... we wish you all the best and love you all... ADENIYI JOHNSON and TOYIN AIMAKHU JOHNSON."</i> - they wrote.</div>
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Toyin and Niyi got married on  Monday, July 8, 2013 at the Ikoyi Marriage Registry, Lagos in the presence of family members and a few friends.</div>

"It's Our Stormy Season", Toyin Aimakhu and Husband Speak On Rumoured Split

Over the weekend, reports of a marriage split between Toyin Aimakhu and her husband Adeniyi Johnson surfaced online. The Nollywood actress and her husband have responded to the allegations, both rele…

26 Jan 2015

Heavy Security As Ambode Campaigns In Mushin

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<b>As the All Progressives Congress holds its electioneering rally at the Mushin area of Lagos metropolis, the Lagos State Police Command on Monday mounted heavy security at the crisis-prone place.</b></div>
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The News Agency of Nigeria [NAN] reports that to ensure a peaceful atmosphere, the police cordoned off the Abeokuta Expressway at the Cappa and Olorunsogo ends.</div>
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The development ensured that vehicles did not come into Mushin from the Oshodi end of the road, a development that created gridlock as traffic was diverted to alternative routes.</div>
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NAN also noticed the presence of armed policemen who were combat-ready to avert any violence from miscreants that could disrupt the rally.</div>
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There was the Police Rapid Response Squad with their Armoured vehicles at rally venue.</div>
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The situation kept the so called 'Area Boys' in check as they were seen falling in line with instructions by the policemen on how to go about at the rally.</div>
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Speaking with NAN, the Police Public Relations Officer, DSP Kenneth Nwosu, said the police had always been prepared to nip violence in the bud.</div>
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"We are prepared like we used to be at every other rally, our men are on ground and we have lectured them on what to do.</div>
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"Security is not one man’s business, so, we are ready for anyone that wants to disrupt the rally," Nwosu said.</div>
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He added that when people conduct themselves well, they also help the security situation.</div>
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The Lagos State Governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola and the APC governorship candidate, Mr Akinwunmi Ambode, were seen distributing APC crested T shirts to the crowd.</div>

Heavy Security As Ambode Campaigns In Mushin

As the All Progressives Congress holds its electioneering rally at the Mushin area of Lagos metropolis, the Lagos State Police Command on Monday mounted heavy security at the crisis-prone place. The …

26 Jan 2015

Nigerian Couple Abandon Twin Kids In The US

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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Couple say the twins were left in the care of their uncle, Giobari Atura</td></tr>
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<b>A Nigerian couple was questioned after it was revealed that they abandoned their 9-year-old twins in their apartment in United States during a trip back home.</b></div>
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Jerusalem and Gladys Monday, left the boy twins mostly to themselves in their New Hampshire apartment for four months and took their other three children with them to Nigeria.</div>
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Police started looking into the case in November when the boys' school notified the State Division of Children, Youth and Families that the twins had been living on their own for months.</div>
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The kids were getting themselves up and on the bus, then eating breakfast and lunch at school. The boys were taken into protective custody and then placed into foster care.</div>
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Police authorities say the couple left the twins in the care of an uncle who also abandoned them.  The uncle 25-year-old Giobari Atura promised the kids that he would be checking on them regularly to drop food but when police came to the house in November 2014, they found no edible food in the refrigerator and only ramen noodles in a cabinet.</div>
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Giobari Atura, 25, was hit with a one count charge of endangering the welfare of a child, a misdemeanor. He was freed on $500 bail.</div>
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The Nigerian couple left for Nigeria in July and was scheduled to return in August but told police that they were delayed by illness and passport problems.</div>
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Assistant Hillsborough County Attorney Michael Valentine said the parents returned to United States shortly after they learned the boys were being left alone.</div>
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They had instructed Giobari Atura who is the younger brother of Jeremiah to stay in the apartment to help take care of the boys. They said Giobari always assured them that all was well when they called him from Nigeria.</div>
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Michael Valentine said the parents won't be charged and have been reunited with their children.</div>

Nigerian Couple Abandon Twin Kids In The US

Couple say the twins were left in the care of their uncle, Giobari Atura A Nigerian couple was questioned after it was revealed that they abandoned their 9-year-old twins in their apartment in United…

26 Jan 2015

Buhari's Certificate: How Fani-Kayode "Forged" My Friend's Email - By Suraj Oyewale

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<b>I was on my way to work on the morning of Monday, January 26, when my friend, Sodiq Alabi, sent me a Facebook message asking me how to contact THISDAY newspapers since I am more familiar with newspaper houses as a regular contributor to issues in national dailies.</b></div>
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Sodiq included in the message a web link to an article in <b>THISDAY</b> newspaper with the title, <i><b>"Cambridge University: Hausa Language Not Offered in 1961 Exams"</b></i>. I opened the article to see these lines:</div>
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<i>"The controversy over the secondary school results of the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, continues as the  University of Cambridge has said that Hausa Language, which is one of the subjects listed by Buhari, was not offered in its examinations in 1961.</i></div>
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<i>"The disclosure was contained in a statement from the office of the Director of the PDP Presidential Campaign Organisation claiming it came through an e-mail dated Thursday, January 22, 2015 from the institution’s Archives Delivery Service Officer, Jacky Emerson, to one SODIQ ALABI who requested for confirmation if the examination body offered Hausa Language in the 1961 West African Certificate Examination it organised.</i></div>
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<i>"Emerson, in his one-sentence reply, said: 'According to the Regulations for 1961, African Language papers, including those for Hausa, WERE NOT included for West African School Certificate.'</i></div>
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<i>"This development may have further cast doubts on the certificate which is purported to be General Buhari’s. He is yet to react to the assertion by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Presidential Campaign Organisation that the document (the published certificate) was forged and illegally procured."</i> (Capitalizations mine)</div>
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Sodiq was shocked such falsehood was attributed to him by Mr. Femi Fani-Kayode and wanted to contact the Editor of <b>THISDAY</b> for such wicked misrepresentation. Sodiq Alabi (sodiqalabi@hotmail.com) had written an email to Cambridge Assessment, the brand name of University of Cambridge Local Examinations Syndicates, on January 22, 2015, 13.31 hours, to confirm whether Hausa was truly offered by it in 1961 examinations. By 4.10pm same day, Jacky Emerson (archives@cambridgeassessment.org.uk), Archive Services Delivery officer of Cambridge Assessment, replied thus: <b>“Dear Sodiq Alabi, According to the Regulations of 1961, African Language papers, WERE SET for West Africa School Certificate.”</b></div>
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A screenshot of this email exchange was shared with us on Facebook by Sodiq and it went viral on the internet. The email triggered other Nigerians to send emails to Cambridge Assessment for independent confirmation and the school came out with a release on its website the next day. In the release titled, <b>“Statement in response to Nigerian Presidential election enquiries”</b>, the school stated, <i>“The organisation also confirmed that according to the Regulations for 1961, African Language papers, including those for Hausa WERE SET for the West African School Certificate.” </i>Here is the link to the Cambridge Assessment website where this confirmation was published: http://cambridgeassessment.org.uk/news/statement-in-response-to-nigerian-presidential-election-enquiries/.</div>
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<b>READ ALSO:</b> <b><a href="http://nigerianewsroom.blogspot.com/2015/01/breaking-cambridge-confirms-offering.html">BREAKING NEWS: CAMBRIDGE CONFIRMS OFFERING HAUSA LANGUAGE IN WASC IN 1961</a></b></div>
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It is however surprising that Femi Fani-Kayode went ahead to alter the content of Sodiq’s email in his press statement to, <i>“According to the Regulations for 1961, African Language papers, including those for Hausa, WERE NOT included for West African School Certificate.”</i>, and still quoted the email as the source.</div>
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It is very unfortunate that this is the man speaking for the President’s re-election campaign. How do we believe every other “fact” he has quoted has not been altered as well? It is a shame.</div>
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It is also very unfortunate that our newspapers have gone to sleep and investigative journalism is at its lowest ebb in Nigeria. How will Femi Fani-Kayode not be feeding newspaper reporters with lies when he knows how lazy some of our journalists have become? This is not an advertorial that does not require independent confirmation. All <b>THISDAY</b> and <b>Daily Post</b> that reported this Fani-Kayode’s glaring lie needed to do is to seek out Sodiq or confirm from Cambridge – which had posted a confirmation statement on conduct of Hausa language in 1961 WASC on its website since January 23, two days before Fani-Kayode came up with this lie – and ask for their side of the story.</div>
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It is particularly curious that I had, in an earlier article sent to <b>THISDAY</b>, which was published in its January 25 edition, attached a screenshot of the email from Sodiq to buttress some other arguments, so <b>THISDAY</b> editors, at least their OP-ED editor, could not have claimed not to have seen the original content of Sodiq’s email before Fani-Kayode’s alteration.</div>
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This is not the first time President Jonathan’s men are forging or altering documents to demonize anyone perceived as the President’s “enemy”. His New Media Assistant, <b>Reno Omokri</b>, was also busted in February last year, when he hid under a pseudonym, Wendel Simlin, to send false but damaging reports to newspapers to demonize the then just suspended Governor Lamido Sanusi of Central Bank. A dig into the source of the computer used in typing the document showed it was a certain Reno Omokri that authored it!</div>
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How lowly can people get?</div>
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<b>Oyewale, a chartered accountant and blogger, lives in Ajah, Lagos. He can be reached at oyewalesuraj@gmail.com</b></div>

Buhari's Certificate: How Fani-Kayode "Forged" My Friend's Email - By Suraj Oyewale

I was on my way to work on the morning of Monday, January 26, when my friend, Sodiq Alabi, sent me a Facebook message asking me how to contact THISDAY newspapers since I am more familiar with newspap…

26 Jan 2015

[Opinion] Buhari vs Jonathan: Beyond The Election - By Chukwuma Charles Soludo

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<b>I need to preface this article with a few clarifications. I have taken a long sabbatical leave from partisan politics, and it is real fun watching the drama from the balcony.  Having had my own share of public service (I do not need a job from government), I now devote my time and energy in pursuit of other passions, especially abroad. A few days ago, I read an article in <i>ThisDay </i>entitled <i>"Where is Charles Soludo?"</i>, and my answer is that I am still there, only that I have been too busy with extensive international travels to participate in or comment on our national politics and economy.</b></div>
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But I occasionally follow events at home. Since the survival and prosperity of Nigeria are at stake, the least some of us (albeit, non-partisan) must do is to engage in public debate. As the elections approach, I owe a duty to share some of my concerns.</div>
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In September 2010, I wrote a piece entitled <b><i>2011 Elections: Let the Real Debate Begin</i></b> and published by <b>ThisDay</b>. I understand the Federal Executive Council discussed it, and the Minister of Information rained personal attacks on me during the press briefing. I noted more than six newspaper editorials in support of the issues we raised. Beside other issues we raised, our main thesis was that the macro economy was dangerously adrift, with little self-insurance mechanisms (and a prediction that if oil prices fell below $40, many state governments would not be able to pay salaries). I gave a subtle hint at easy money and exchange rate depreciations because I did not want to panic the market with a strong statement. Sadly, on the eve of the next elections, literally everything we hinted at has happened.  Part of my motivation for this article is that five years after, the real debate is still not happening.</div>
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The presidential election next month will be won by either Buhari or Jonathan. For either, it is likely to be a pyrrhic victory. None of them will be able to deliver on the fantastic promises being made on the economy, and if oil prices remain below $60, I see very difficult months ahead, with possible heady collisions with labour, civil society, and indeed the citizenry. To be sure, the presidential election will not be decided by the quality of 'issues' or promises canvassed by the candidates. The debates won’t also change much (except if there is a major gaffe by either candidate like Tofa did in the debate with Abiola). My take is that more than 95% of the likely voters have pretty much made up their minds based largely on other considerations. A few of us remain undecided. During my brief visit to Nigeria, I watched some of the campaign rallies on television. The tragedy of the current electioneering campaigns is that both parties are missing the golden opportunity to sensitize the citizenry about the enormous challenges ahead and hence mobilize them for the inevitable sacrifices they would be called upon to make soon. Each is promising an El-Dorado.</div>
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Let me admit that the two main parties talk around the major development challenges - corruption, insecurity, economy (unemployment/poverty, power, infrastructure, etc) health, education, etc. However, it is my considered view that none of them has any credible agenda to deal with the issues, especially within the context of the evolving global economy and Nigeria’s broken public finance. The UK Conservative Party’s manifesto for the last election proudly announced that all its programmes were fully costed and were therefore implementable. Neither APC nor PDP can make a similar claim.  A plan without the dollar or Naira signs to it is nothing but a wish-list. They are not telling us how much each of their promises will cost and where they will get the money. None talks about the broken or near bankrupt public finance and the strategy to fix it. </div>
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In response to the question of where the money will come from, I heard one of the politicians say that the problem of Nigeria was not money but the management of resources. This is half-truth. The problem is both. No matter how efficient a father (with a monthly salary of ₦50,000) is at managing the family resources, I cannot see how he could deliver on a promise to buy a brand new Peugeot 406 for each of his three children in a year.  Even with all the loopholes and waste closed, with increased efficiency per dollar spent, there is still a binding budget constraint. To deliver an efficient national transport infrastructure alone will still cost tens of billions of dollars per annum even by corruption-free, cost-effective means. Did I hear that APC promises a welfare system that will pay between ₦5,000 and ₦10,000 per month to the poorest 25 million Nigerians? Just this programme alone will cost between ₦1.5 and ₦3 trillion per annum. Add to this the cost of free primary education plus free meal (to be funded by the federal budget or would it force non-APC state governments to implement the same?), plus some millions of public housing, etc.  </div>
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I have tried to cost some of the promises by both the APC and the PDP, given alternative scenarios for public finance and the numbers don’t add up. Nigerians would be glad to know how both parties would fund their programmes. Do they intend to accentuate the huge public debt, or raise taxes on the soon to-be-beleaguered private businesses, or massively devalue the Naira to rake in baskets of Naira from the dwindling oil revenue, or embark on huge fiscal retrenchment with the sack of labour and abandonment of projects, and which areas of waste do they intend to close and how much do they estimate to rake in from them, etc? I remember that Chief Obafemi Awolowo was asked similar questions in 1978 and 1979 about his promises of free education and free medical services. Even as a teenager, I was impressed by how he reeled out figures about the amounts he would save from various ‘waste’ including the tea/coffee served in government offices. The point is that at least he did his homework and had his numbers and I give credit to his team. Some 36 years later, the quality of political debate and discourse seems to border on the pedestrian. From the quality of its team, I did not expect much from the current government, but I must confess that I expected APC as a party aspiring to take over from PDP to come up with a knock-out punch. Evidently, from what we have read from the various versions of its manifesto as well as the depth of promises being made, it does not seem that it has a better offer.</div>
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Let me digress a bit to refresh our memory on where we are, and thus provide the context in which to evaluate the promises being made to us. Recall that the key word of the 2015 budget is ‘austerity’. Austerity? This is just within a few months of the fall in oil prices. History repeats itself in a very cruel way, as this was exactly what happened under the Shehu Shagari administration. Under the Shagari government, oil price reached its highest in 1980/81. During the same period, Nigeria ratcheted up its consumption and all tiers of government were in competition as to which would out-borrow the other. Huge public debt was the consequence. When oil prices crashed in early 1982, the National Assembly then passed the Economic Stabilization (Austerity Measures) Act in one day - going through the first, second, and third readings the same day.  The austerity measures included the rationing of ‘essential commodities’ and most states owed salary arrears. Corruption was said to be pervasive, and as Sani Abacha said in that famous coup speech, "unemployment has reached unacceptable proportions and our hospitals have become mere consulting clinics". General Muhammadu Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon regime made the fight against corruption and restoration of discipline the cardinal point of their administration which lasted for 20 months. I am not sure they had a credible plan to get the economy out of the doldrums (although it must be admitted that poverty incidence in Nigeria as of 1985 when they left office was a just 46% - according to the Federal Office of Statistics).</div>
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We have come full circle. If the experience under Shagari could be excused as an unexpected shock, what Nigeria is going through now is a consequence of our deliberate wrong choices. We have always known that the unprecedented oil boom (in both price and quantity - despite oil theft) of the last six years is temporary but the government chose to treat it as a permanent shock. The parallels with the Shagari regime are troubling. First, at the time of oil boom, Nigeria again went on a consumption spree such that the budgets of the last five years can best be described as ‘consumption budgets’, with new borrowing by the federal government exceeding the actual expenditure on critical infrastructure. Second, not one penny was added to the stock of foreign reserves at a period Nigeria earned hundreds of billions from oil. For comparisons, President Obasanjo met about $5 billion in foreign reserves, and the average monthly oil price for the 72 months he was in office was $38, and yet he left $43 billion in foreign reserves after paying $12 billion to write-off Nigeria’s external debt. In the last five years, the average monthly oil price has been over $100, and the quantity also higher but our foreign reserves have been declining and exchange rate depreciating.</div>
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I note that when I assumed office as Governor of CBN, the stock of foreign reserves was $10 billion. The average monthly oil price during my 60 months in office was $59, but foreign reserve reached the all-time peak of $62 billion (and despite paying $12 billion for external debt, and losing over $15 billion during the unprecedented global financial and economic crisis) I left behind $45 billion. Recall also that our exchange rate continuously appreciated during this period and was at ₦117 to the dollar before the global crisis and we deliberately allowed it to depreciate in order to preserve our reserves.  My calculation is that if the economy was better managed, our foreign reserves should have been between $102 - $118 billion and exchange rate around ₦112 before the fall in oil prices. As of now, the reserves should be around $90 billion and exchange rate no higher than ₦125 per dollar.  </div>
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Third, the rate of public debt accumulation at a time of unprecedented boom had no parallel in the world. While the Obasanjo administration bought and enlarged the policy space for Nigeria, the current government has sold and constricted it. What debt relief did for Nigeria was to liberate Nigerian policymakers from the intrusive conditionalities of the creditors and thereby truly allowing Nigeria independence in its public policy. How have we used the independence?  Through our own choices, we have yet again tied the hands of future policymakers. This time, the debt is not necessarily to foreign creditor institutions/governments which are organized under the Paris Club but largely to private agents which is even more volatile. We call it domestic debt. But if one carefully unpacks the bond portfolio, what percentage of it is held by foreign private agents? And I understand the Government had removed the speed bumps we kept to slow the speed of capital flight, and someone is sweating to explain the gyrations in foreign reserves. I am just smiling! </div>
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In sum, the mismanagement of our economy has brought us once more to the brink. Government officials rely on the artificial construct of debt to GDP ratio to tell us we can borrow as much as we want. That is nonsense, especially for an economy with a mono but highly volatile source of revenue and forex earnings. The chicken will soon come home to roost. Today, the combined domestic and external debt of the Federal Government is in excess of $40 billion. Add to this the fact that abandoned capital projects littered all over the country amount to over $50 billion. No word yet on other huge contingent liabilities. If oil prices continue to fall, I bet that Nigeria will soon have a heavy debt burden even with low debt to GDP ratio. Furthermore, given the current and capital account regime, it is evident that Nigeria does not have enough foreign reserves to adequately cover for imports plus short term liabilities. In essence, we are approaching the classic of what the Shagari government faced, and no wonder the hasty introduction of ‘austerity measures’ again.</div>
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Fourth, poverty incidence and unemployment are also simultaneously at all-time high levels. According to the NBS, poverty incidence grew to 69%  in 2010 and projected to be 71% in 2011, with unemployment at 24%.  This is the worst record in Nigeria’s history, and the paradox is that this happened during the unprecedented oil boom.</div>
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One theme I picked up listening to the campaign rallies as well as to some of the propagandists is the confusion about measuring government “performance”. Most people seem to confuse ‘inputs’, or ‘processes’ with output. Earlier this month, I had a dinner with a group of friends (14 of us) and we were chit-chatting about Nigeria. One of us, an associate of President Jonathan veered off to repeat a propaganda mantra that Jonathan had outperformed his predecessors. He also reminded us that Jonathan re-based the GDP and that Nigeria is now the biggest economy in Africa; etc. It was fun listening to the response by others. In sum, the group agreed that the President had ‘outperformed’ his predecessors except that it is in reverse order. First, my friend was educated that re-basing the GDP is no achievement: it is a routine statistical exercise, and depending on the base year that you choose, you get a different GDP figure. Re-basing the GDP has nothing to do with government policy. Besides, as naira-dollar exchange rate continues to depreciate, the GDP in current dollars will also shrink considerably soon. </div>
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We were reminded of Jonathan’s agricultural ‘revolution’. But someone cut in and noted that for all the propaganda, the growth rate of the agricultural sector in the last five years still remains far below the performance under Obasanjo. One of us reminded him that no other president had presided over the slaughter of about 15,000 people by insurgents in a peacetime; no other president earned up to 50% of the amount of resources the current government earned from oil and yet with very little outcomes; no other president had the rate of borrowing; none had significant forex earnings and yet did not add one penny to foreign reserves but losing international reserves at a time of boom; no other president had a depreciating exchange rate at a time of export boom; at no time in Nigeria’s history has poverty reached 71% (even under Abacha, it was 67 - 70%); and under no other president did unemployment reach 24%. Surely, these are unprecedented records and he surely ‘outperformed’ his predecessors!  What a satire! </div>
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One of those present took the satire to some level by comparing Jonathan to the ‘performance’ of the former Governor of Anambra, Peter Obi.  He noted that while Obi gloated about ‘savings’, there is no signature project to remember his regime except that his regime took the first position among all states in Nigeria in the democratization of poverty - mass impoverishment of the people of Anambra. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, poverty rose under his watch in Anambra from 20% in 2004 (lowest in Nigeria then) to 68% in 2010 (a 238% deterioration!). Our friend likened it to a father who had no idea of what to do with his resources and was celebrating his fat bank account while his children were dying of kwashiorkor. He pointed out that since it is the likes of Peter Obi who are the advisers to Jonathan on how to manage the economy (thereby confusing micromanagement which you do as a trader with macro governance) it is little wonder that poverty is fast becoming another name for Nigeria. It was a very hilarious evening. </div>
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My advice to President Jonathan and his handlers is to stop wasting their time trying to campaign on his job record. Those who have decided to vote for him will not do so because he has taken Nigeria to the moon. His record on the economy is a clear ‘F’ grade. As one reviews the laundry list of micro interventions the government calls its achievements, one wonders whether such list is all that the government could deliver with an unprecedented oil boom and an unprecedented public debt accumulation. I can clearly see why reasonable people are worried. Everywhere else in the world, government performance on the economy is measured by some outcome variables such as: income (GDP growth rate), stability of prices (inflation and exchange rate), unemployment rate, poverty rate, etc. On all these scores, this government has performed worse than its immediate predecessor -Obasanjo regime. If we appropriately adjust for oil income and debt, then this government is the worst in our history on the economy. All statistics are from the National Bureau of Statistics.</div>
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Despite presiding over the biggest oil boom in our history, it has not added one percentage point to the growth rate of GDP compared to the Obasanjo regime especially the 2003 - 07 period.  Obasanjo met GDP growth rate at 2% but averaged 7% within 2003 - 07. The current government has been stuck at 6% despite an unprecedented oil boom. Income (GDP) growth has actually performed worse, and poverty escalated. This is the only government in our history where rapidly increasing government expenditure was associated with increasing poverty. The Director General of NBS stated in his written press conference address in 2011 that about 112 million Nigerians were living in poverty. Is this the record to defend? Obama had a tough time in his re-election in 2012 because unemployment reached 8%. Here, unemployment is at a record 24% and poverty at an all-time 71% but people are prancing around, gloating about ‘performance’. As I write, the Naira exchange rate to the dollar is $210 at the parallel market. What a historic performance! Please save your breathe and save us the embarrassment. The President promised Nigeria nothing in the last election and we did not get value for money. He should this time around present us with his plan for the future, and focus on how he would redeem himself in the second term - if he wins!</div>
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Sadly the government’s economic team is very weak, dominated by self-interested and self-conflicted group of traders and businessmen, and so-called economic team meetings have been nothing but showbiz time. The very people government exists to regulate have seized the levers of government as policymakers and most government institutions have largely been “privatized” to them. Mention any major government department or agency and someone will tell you whom it has been ‘allocated’ to, and the person subsequently nominates his minion to occupy the seat. What do you then expect? The economy seems to be on auto pilot, with confusion as to who is in charge, and government largely as a constraint. There are no big ideas, and it is difficult to see where economic policy is headed to. My thesis is that the Nigerian economy, if properly managed, should have been growing at an annual rate of about 12% given the oil boom, and poverty and unemployment should have fallen dramatically over the last five years. This is topic for another day.</div>
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So far, the Government’s response to the self-inflicted crisis is, at best, laughable. They blame external shocks as if we did not expect them and say nothing about the terrible policy choices they made. The National Assembly had described the 2015 budget as unrealistic. The fiscal adjustments proposed in the 2015 budget simply play to the gallery and just to pander to our emotions. For a $540 billion economy, the so-called luxury tax amounts to zero per cent of GDP.  If the current trend continues, private businesses will come under a heavy crunch soon. Having put economics on its head during the boom time, the Government now proposes to increase taxes during a prospective downturn and impose austerity measures. Unbelievable!</div>
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Fortuitously, just as he succeeded Shagari when Nigeria faced similar situations, Buhari is once more seeking to lead Nigeria. But times have changed, and Nigeria is largely different. First, this is a democracy and dealing with corruption must happen within the ambit of the rule of law and due process. Getting things done in a democracy requires complicated bargaining, especially where the legislature, labour, the media, and civil society have become strong and entrenched. Second, the size, structure and institutions of the economy have fundamentally altered. The market economy, especially the capital market and foreign exchange market, impose binding constraints and discipline on any regime. Third, dealing with most of the other issues - insecurity, unemployment/poverty, infrastructure, health, education, etc, require increased, smarter, and more efficient spending. Increased spending when the economy is on the reverse gear? </div>
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If oil prices remain between 40 - 60 dollars over the next two years, the current policy regime guarantees that foreign reserves will continue the precipitous depletion with the attendant exchange rate depreciation, as well as a probable unsustainable escalation in debt accumulation, fiscal retrenchment or taxing the private sector with vengeance. The scenario does not look pretty. The poor choices made by the current government have mortgaged the future, and the next government would have little room to manoeuvre and would inevitably undertake drastic but painful structural adjustments. Nigerians loathe the term ‘structural adjustment’. With falling real wages and depreciating currency, I can see any belated attempt  by the government to deal with the bloated public sector pitching it against a feisty labour.  I worry about regime stability in the coming months, and I do not envy the next team. </div>
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The seeming crisis is not destiny; it is self-imposed. However, we must see it as an opportunity to be seized to fundamentally restructure Nigeria’s political economy, including its fiscal federalism and mineral rights. The current system guarantees cycles of consumption loop and I cannot see sustainable long term prosperity without major systemic overhaul. The proposals at the national conference merely tinker at the margins. In totality, the outcome of the national conference is to do more of the same, with minor amendments on the system of sharing and consumption rather than a fundamental overhaul of the system for productivity and prosperity. President Jonathan promises to implement the report of the national conference if he wins. I commend him for at least offering ‘something’, albeit, marginal in my view. I have not heard anything from the APC or Buhari regarding the national conference report or what kind of federalism they envisage for Nigeria.</div>
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In Nigeria’s recent history, two examples under the military and civilian governments demonstrate that where the political will exists, Nigeria has the capacity to overcome severe challenges. The first was under President Babangida. Not many Nigerians appreciate that given the near bankrupt state of Nigeria’s finances and requirements for debt resolution under the Paris Club, the country had little choice but to undertake the painful Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP).  I want to state for the record that the foundation for the current market economy we operate in Nigeria was laid by that regime (liberalization of markets including market determined exchange rate, private sector-led economy including licensing of private banks and insurance, de-regulation, privatization of public enterprises under TCPC, etc). Just abolishing the import licensing regime was a fundamental policy revolution. Despite the criticisms, these policy thrusts have remained the pillars of our deepening market economy, and the economy recovered from almost negative growth rate to average 5.5% during the regime and poverty incidence at 42% in 1992.</div>
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Under our democratic experience, President Obasanjo inherited a bankrupt economy (with the lost decade of the 1990’s GDP growth rate of 2.2% and hence zero per capita income growth for the decade). His regime consolidated and deepened the market economy structures (consolidation of the banking system which is powering the emergence of a new but truly private sector-led economy and simultaneously led to a new awareness and boom in the capital market; telecommunications revolution; new pension regime; debt relief which won for Nigeria policy independence from the World Bank and Paris Club; deepening of de-regulation and  privatization including the unbundling of NEPA under PHCN for privatization; agricultural revolution that saw yearly growth rate of over 6% and remains unsurpassed ever since; sound monetary and fiscal policy and growing foreign reserves that gave confidence to investors; establishment of the Africa Finance Corporation which is leading infrastructure finance in Africa; backward integration policy that saw the establishment and growth of Dangote cement and others; established ICPC and EFCC to fight corruption, etc). The economy roared to average yearly growth of 7% between 2003 and 2007 (although average monthly oil price under his regime was $38), and poverty dropped from estimated 70% in 1999 to 54% in 2004. Obasanjo was his own coordinating minister of the economy and chairman of the economic management team - which he chaired for 90 minutes every week. I met with him daily. In other words, he did not outsource economic management. </div>
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We expected that the next government after Obasanjo would take the economy to the next level. So far, we have had two great slogans: the 7-point agenda and currently, the transformation agenda. They remain empty slogans without content or direction.</div>
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Let me suggest that the fundamental challenge for the next government on the economy can be framed around the goal of creating twelve million jobs over the next four years to have a dent on unemployment and poverty. The challenge is to craft a development agenda to deliver this within the context of broken public finance, and an economy in which painful structural adjustments will be inevitable if current trends in oil prices continue. Most other programmes on corruption, security, power, infrastructure, etc, are expected to be instruments to achieve this objective.</div>
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So far, neither the APC nor the PDP has a credible programme for employment and poverty reduction. The APC promises to create 20,000 jobs per state in the first year, totalling a mere 720,000 jobs. This sounds like a quota system and for a country where the new entrants into the labour market per annum exceed two million. If it was intended as a joke, APC must please get serious. On the other hand, President Jonathan targets two million jobs per annum but his strategy for doing so is a Job Board - another committee of sort. Sorry, Mr. President, a Job Board is not a strategy. The principal job Nigerians hired you to do for them is to create jobs for them too. You cannot outsource that job, Sir. Creating 3 million jobs per annum under the unfolding crisis would task our creativity and audacity to the limits. </div>
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I heard one politician argue that once we fix power, private sector would create jobs. Not necessarily! Well, this government claims to have added 1,700MW to the national grid and yet unemployment soars. Ask Greece, Spain, etc with power and infrastructure and yet with high unemployment. Structural dislocations play a key role. For example, currently in Nigeria, it is estimated that more than 60% of graduates of our educational system are unemployable. You can understand why many of us are amused when the government celebrates that it has established twelve more glorified secondary schools as universities. I thought they would have told us how many Nigerian universities made it in the league of the best 200 universities in the world. That would have been an achievement. Surely, creating millions of jobs in this economy would, among other things, require ‘new money’ and extraordinary system of coordination among the three tiers of government plus the private sector. Unfortunately, from what I read, the CBN is largely likely to be asleep at this time the country needs the most revolutionary finance. This is a topic for another day. Only the President can lead this effort. Moreover, we are waiting for the two parties/candidates to spell out HOW they will create jobs, whether it is the 20,000 jobs per state by APC or 2 million per annum by President Jonathan.  Let us know how you arrived at the figures. Whichever of the two that is declared winner will have his job cut out for him, and I expect him to declare a national emergency on job creation. </div>
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Surprisingly, none of the parties/candidates has any grand vision about African economic integration, led by Nigeria. There is no programme on how to make the Naira the <i>de facto</i> currency of ECOWAS or the international financial centre that can attract more than $100 billion per annum. Where is the strategy for orchestrating the revolutionary finance to power the economy during this downturn? For President Jonathan, I find it shocking that the most important initiative of his government to secure the future of the economy by Nigeria refusing to sign the ruinous Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European Union is not even being mentioned. President Obasanjo saved Nigeria from the potential ruin of an ECOWAS single currency while to his credit Jonathan safeguarded our industrial sector/economy by refusing to sign the EPA. Or does the government not understand the import of that? It will be interesting to know the APC’s strategy for exploiting strategic alliances within Africa, China, and the world for Nigeria’s prosperity. </div>
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If Buhari wins, he will ride on the populist wind for “change”.  Most people I have spoken to who have decided to vote for Buhari do not necessarily know the specifics of what he would offer or how Nigeria would be different under him. I asked my driver, Usman, whom he would vote for President. He responded: <i>“If dey no rig the election, na Buhari everybody go vote for”</i>. I asked him why, and his next response sums it: <i>“The man dey honest. In short, people just want to see another face for that villa”</i>.  But if he wins, the honeymoon will be brief and the pressure will be immense to magically deliver a ‘new Nigeria’ with no corruption, no Boko Haram or insecurity, jobs for everyone, no poverty, infrastructure and power in abundance, etc. As a first point, Buhari and his team must realize that they do not yet have a coherent, credible agenda that is consistent with the fundamentals of the economy currently. The APC manifesto contains some good principles and wish-lists, but as a blue print for Nigeria’s security and prosperity, it is largely hollow. The numbers do not add up. Thus, his first job is to present a credible development agenda to Nigerians.</div>
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The second key challenge for Buhari and his team will be to transit and transform from a group of what I largely refer to as aggrieved people’s congregation to build a true political party with a soul from the patchwork of political associations. It is surely easier to oppose than to govern.  This should not worry us much. After all, even the PDP which has been in power for 16 years is still an assembly of people held together by what I refer to as dining table politics. I am not sure how many members can tell you what their party stands for or its mission and vision for Nigeria. The third but more difficult agenda is cobbling together a truly ‘progressive team’ that will begin to pick the pieces.  The lesson of history is that the best leaders have been the ones who went beyond their narrow provincial enclaves to recruit talents and mobilize capacities for national transformation. In Nigeria’s history, the two presidents who made the most fundamental transformation of the economy, Babangida and Obasanjo, were exceptional in the quality of the teams they put together. I therefore pray that Buhari will be magnanimous in victory - if he wins - to put together a <b>‘Team Nigeria’</b> for the rescue mission.</div>
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If Jonathan wins, then God must have been magnanimous to give him a second chance to redeem himself. Most people I know who support Jonathan do so either out of self-interest or fear of the unknown.  As a friend summed it: the devil you know is better than the angel you do not know.  One person assured me that we would see a ‘different Jonathan’ if he wins as he has been rattled by the harsh judgment of history on his presidency so far.  I just pray that he is right.  In that case, I would just draw the President’s attention to two issues:</div>
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First, beside the coterie of clowns who literally make a living with the sing-song of transformation agenda, President Jonathan must know that it remains an empty slogan. His greatest challenge is how to save himself from the stranglehold of his largely provincial palace jesters who tell him he has done better than God, and seek out ‘enemies’ and friends who can help him write his name in history. Propaganda won’t do it. </div>
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Second, Jonathan must claw back his powers as President of Nigeria. He largely outsourced them, and must now roll his sleeves for a new beginning. I take liberty to tell you this brutal truth: if you are not re-elected, there is little to remember your regime after the next few years.  On 7th January 2004, I made a special presentation to an expanded economic management team to set agenda for the new year (as chief economic adviser). The focus of my presentation was for us to identify seven <i>iroko</i> trees that would be the flagship markers for the administration as well as how to finance them. I use the same framework to evaluate your administration. What I say to you, Mr. President, is that your record of performance so far is like a farmland filled with grasses. Yes, they are many but there is no tree, let alone any <i>iroko</i> tree, that stands out. Think about this. The beginning of wisdom for every President in his second term is to admit that he is racing against time to cement his legacy. So far, your report card is not looking great. You need a team of big and bold thinkers, as well as with excellent execution capacity. So far, it is not working!</div>
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Under the executive presidential system, Nigerians elected you to manage their economy. You cannot outsource that job. Our constitution envisages a federal coordination of the economy, and that function is performed by the National Economic Council (NEC) with Vice-President as chairman. Indeed, the constitution and other laws of Nigeria envisage the office of the VP as the coordinator on the economy. All major economic institutions of the federal government are, by law, chaired by the Vice-President including the national planning (see functions of the National Planning Commission as coordinator of federal government economic and development programmes), Debt Management Office, National Council on Privatization, etc. As chairman of National Planning (with Ministers of Finance, Agriculture, CBN Governor, etc as members), the VP oversees the federal planning and coordination. Then the Constitution mandates the VP as representative of the federal government to chair the NEC, with only CBN governor and state governors as members - to coordinate national economy between federal and states. No minister is a member of NEC. Many people do not understand the logic of the design of our constitution and the role of the VP. Of course, the buck stops on the desk of Mr. President. Only the President and VP have our mandate to govern us. Every other person is an adviser/assistant. I bet that you will only appreciate this article AFTER you leave office. Now that you are in power, truth will only hurt! Be assured that those of us who are prepared to die for Nigeria will never spare you or anyone else this bitter truth.</div>
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Nigeria must survive and prosper beyond Buhari or Jonathan!</div>
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[Opinion] Buhari vs Jonathan: Beyond The Election - By Chukwuma Charles Soludo

I need to preface this article with a few clarifications. I have taken a long sabbatical leave from partisan politics, and it is real fun watching the drama from the balcony. Having had my own share…

26 Jan 2015

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[Opinion] Buhari vs Jonathan: Beyond The Election - By Chukwuma Charles Soludo

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