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Nigerian Election: 'Better An Ex-Dictator Than A Weak President' | Telegraph UK

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<b>Muhammadu Buhari may be a ruthless and ageing former dictator but he is neck and neck in the polls leading up to Nigeria's presidential election, writes Colin Freeman for Telegraph, UK.</b></div>
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Even by his own admission, General Muhammadu Buhari’s time in charge of Nigeria is not one to be misty-eyed about.</div>
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After seizing power in a coup in 1983, he threw critics in jail, kidnapped enemies off the streets of London, and ordered soldiers to whip Nigerians who did not queue in orderly fashion at bus stops.</div>
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By any normal standards, the ageing ex-dictator should now be a relic of the dark days of military rule, when the only way to stop the country falling apart seemed to be an iron fist.</div>
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Instead, he may be about to voted in again as president.</div>
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At an age when other politicians are considering retirement, Mr Buhari, 72, has emerged as the main challenger to President Goodluck Jonathan in Saturday’s vote for the head of Africa’s most populous state.</div>
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With Boko Haram still running rampant, 200 kidnapped schoolgirls still missing, and poverty and corruption still rampant, many Nigerians feel Mr Jonathan has not proved up to the job.</div>
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Hence the nostalgia for a dour ex-strongman like Mr Buhari, who is now running neck-and-neck with the incumbent.</div>
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“Given the option between a failed president and a former dictator with a track record, I think the choice is going to be pretty clear for most Nigerians,” Mr Buhari’s chief spokesman, Lai Mohammed, told <i>The Sunday Telegraph</i>. “You have to look at the challenges Nigeria is facing in security and corruption and the economy. Frankly Mr Jonathan hasn’t proved up to them.”</div>
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The last time he was in power, having ousted a hopelessly corrupt civilian government in 1983, Mr Buhari pursued his vision of a more orderly Nigeria with single-minded ruthlessness.</div>
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In what he dubbed the “war against indiscipline”, he beefed up the country’s secret police, prosecuted hundreds of officials for corruption, and threw journalists and anyone else who dared criticise him into jail, including Fela Kuti, the legendary pioneer of Nigerian “high life” music.</div>
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Notoriously, the long arm of his law also reached out for Nigerians who fled abroad. In 1984, his government despatched agents to London to kidnap Umaru Dikko, a minister in the previous government accused of embezzlement.</div>
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The plot was only rumbled when a Customs officer at Stansted Airport became suspicious about a crate marked “diplomatic baggage” that was due to be picked up by a Nigerian airliner.</div>
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Inside, he found an unconscious Mr Dikko, as well as the professional anaesthetist who had drugged him. The incident sparked a major diplomatic fall-out with Britain and saw four men jailed for kidnapping.</div>
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At home, such outlandish gambits won Mr Buhari grudging respect. He is also seen as relatively clean of corruption and his efforts to clean up Nigeria’s civil service, an Augean stables of graft and incompetence, also won him praise. At one point he punished civil servants who turned up late for work by making them do frog jumps.</div>
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For the upcoming election, he has had to polish his democratic credentials a touch.</div>
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In a recent speech at London’s Chatham House think tank, he described himself as a “converted democrat”, who had realised the futility of one-party rule after the collapse of the Soviet Union.</div>
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“I cannot change the past, but I can change the present and the future,” he said. “So before you is a former military ruler, who is ready to operate under democratic norms.”</div>
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A remarkable photoshoot also saw him pose with his children and grandchildren in a range of costumes, from traditional tribal to a dinner jacket and bow tie.</div>
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Some are unmoved. “Buhari is instinctively not a democrat,” said Osita Chidoka, an aviation minister in Mr Jonathan’s government. “It is a sign of the desperation of the opposition that they have to fall back on someone like him.”</div>
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Born near Nigeria’s semi-desert border with Chad, Mr Buhari comes from one of Nigeria’s aristocratic northern Muslim families, who have traditionally punched well above their weight in national politics. But while his following crosses Nigeria’s Muslim-Christian divide, his less-than-charismatic speaking style is not suited to the showmanship required in electoral battles: hence his defeats in a number of previous presidential contests.</div>
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This time around, though, he is level-pegging with Mr Jonathan on 42 per cent of the vote, profiting from his rival’s weakness over Boko Haram. On Friday, a new mass grave was discovered, the latest example of a massacre by the Islamic extremists.</div>
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He also has his wife, the formidable Mrs Aishat Buhari, at his side, who is touring the country in a bid to reassure people that her man has turned a new life. Among those who need convincing is Mr Jonathan’s wife, Patience, who claimed recently that Mr Buhari would put her husband’s entire government behind bars were he to gain power.</div>
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“General Buhari coming back to sanitise the system,” Mrs Buhari told a crowd last week. “Those who are saying that he is coming to jail people shouldn’t be afraid, because we are all yearning for change from the insecurity.”</div>
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The polls are now close enough to worry diplomats, who fear post-vote violence if the result is disputed by one or other side. Both sides have pledged to settle any dispute peacefully, but one official said: “There is a concern that the loser might take their grievances on to the streets rather than into the courts”.</div>
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A defeat for Mr Jonathan would also be the first time in Nigeria’s brief democracy that an incumbent leader has not won a second term or handed power to a nominated successor. However, a graceful exit could prove to be his most lasting act of statesmanship.</div>
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It would also set a good precedent for Mr Buhari, who may find life as a civilian government rather harder than life as a civilian opposition leader. Nigerians may be prepared to give Mr Buhari himself the benefit of the doubt, but there are fears that many of the people around him are somewhat “indisciplined” and corrupt themselves. As one diplomat put it: “People that might help him win an election are not necessarily the ones to help him govern.”</div>
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<b>Telegraph UK</b></div>
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Nigerian Election: 'Better An Ex-Dictator Than A Weak President' | Telegraph UK

Muhammadu Buhari may be a ruthless and ageing former dictator but he is neck and neck in the polls leading up to Nigeria's presiden...

Dokpesi Fingered In Election Debate Group's 'Shady Deals'

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<b>The Nigeria Election Debate Group, NEDG, has organised presidential and vice presidential debates since 1999, but fresh claims have emerged questioning the independence and partisan nature of the group.</b></div>
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The debates, the final lap of the series of debates organised by the NEDG, is holding on March 22, according to the organisers.</div>
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But there have been allegations that the group is actually a one-man show run by Raymond Dokpesi, the Chairman of DAAR Communications Limited (owners of Africa Independent Television, AIT), who uses it as a bargaining tool for private gains and political advantage.</div>
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When it was incorporated in 2011, the NEDG listed six organisations as shareholders, each with a representative.</div>
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They include Broadcasting Organisation of Nigeria, BON, represented by Abubakar Aji; DAAR Communications, represented by Tony Akiotu; Nigeria Union of Journalists, represented by Mohammed Garba; Alliance for Credible Election represented by Emma Ezeazu; Nigeria Guild of Editors, represented by Gbenga Adefaye; and Transition Monitoring Group, TMG, represented by Moshood Erubami.</div>
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At a press conference on Friday in Lagos, a pressure group, <i>Value and Integrity Group</i>, accused Mr. Dokpesi of having turned the NEDG into a private estate put at the service of President Goodluck Jonathan and his Peoples Democratic Party.</div>
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“Our investigation reveals as follows: First, a First Bank account was opened for the NEDG and had Dr. Dokpesi as the sole signatory, though he is not listed as one of the Directors,” the group said in a statement signed by Sina Odugbemi and Popoola Ajayi, Coordinator and Secretary respectively.<br />
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“He also used the DAAR communications office address, a personal address as the address listed in the bank account documentation. These two moves effectively turned the NEDG into Dokpesi’s private company.”</div>
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According to the group, an initial ₦1 million was paid into the said NEDG account, and on March 28th, 2011, another ₦20 million was paid into his (Mr. Dokpesi’s) personal account.  </div>
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“The ₦20m was paid into his personal current account number 2017171535 because the NEDG account opening was in process then hence he received the ₦20m in his personal current account instead of NEDG,” the group said.</div>
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“A text message from Dokpesi to the banker confirms this. The text message reads – <i>‘He sent about ₦20 million to the account since last week and I utilised about ₦50 million for the NEDG DEBATE. As soon as the sponsors pay, I will pay in. daar'</i>”</div>
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The group, brandishing copies of Mr. Dokpesi’s bank account opening documents and NEDG’s certificate of registration at the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC), also said that Mr. Dokpesi tried to open another First Bank account in 2012.</div>
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“The First Bank account was opened by Dokpesi at the Maitama branch of the First Bank in Abuja with account number 2021069251 with Chief Raymond Dokpesi as sole signatory to the account with the help of his aide banker.</div>
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“The second account which Dokpesi equally instructed the banker to open in the Bwari branch of the First bank is pending to be opened because the banker left. However, before then, Dokpesi in fact signed the application forms, attached his passport photos, entered his personal details in 2012. The account was yet to be approved before one of the managers handling it was eased out of the bank.”<br />
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<b>'Sole organiser'</b></div>
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The NEDG began organising presidential election debates in 1999 and describes itself as a coalition of broadcast organisations, civil societies and professional groups committed to entrenching enduring democratic cultures through organised television debates.</div>
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“The Nigerian Elections Debate Group has since transformed into a broad based non-partisan, non-profit making organisation with the primary mandate of organising and hosting live televised debates for all Presidential, Vice Presidential and Gubernatorial candidates in Nigeria,” the NEDG stated on its website.</div>
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But in their press briefing on Friday, the <i>Value and Integrity Group </i>described the NEDG as the non-profit wing of DAAR Communications, available to do the bidding of the ruling party and which had kept other NEDG directors in the dark about their financial transactions.</div>
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“An organisation on the board of the Group, Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), had last year dissociated itself from the planned Presidential debate. TMG accused the organisers of the debate of fraudulently using its name in the promotion of the event and warned NEDG to desist from such shenanigan forthwith.  </div>
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“Chief Dokpesi’s name does not reflect in the NEDG registration documents from the CAC only that of DAAR representative, Tony Akiotu. But Chief Dokpesi has opened the account in his name and went ahead to single handedly organise the 2011 election debate with AIT staff – Imoni Amarere and Nancy Ilo as moderators.</div>
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“Again, he is accused to be the sole organiser of the 2015 presidential election debate for the NEDG which has generated unpleasant credibility crisis for the NEDG.</div>
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“It is alleged that for the 2015 debate, well over ₦250 million has been paid to the organisers by the Presidency.</div>
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“Unfortunately, the refusal of the leading opposition to attend the integrity-deficit presidential debate, AIT has chosen to unprofessionally attack and even defame both the candidate and the party.”</div>
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In January, the All Progressives Congress said it would not participate in the presidential debate organised by the NEDG, accusing the organisers of bias and “wearing the toga of government control, especially being composed mainly of agencies and allies of the incumbent PDP administration”.<br />
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<b>The parties involved</b></div>
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When <i>PREMIUM TIMES</i> contacted Mr. Erubami, who was the Chairman of TMG when NEDG was incorporated, he said issues like that did not arise during his time at the helm of the civil society organisation.</div>
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“I only know to the extent of the time I was chairman of Transition Monitoring Group, but I have completed my time and I’m now at Ibadan, I don’t know anything about the group again,” Mr. Erubami said.</div>
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“If you want to confirm the veracity of what has happened you can contact the current chairman in Abuja.”</div>
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Ibrahim Zikirullahi, the current Chairman of TMG, was more forceful in his response, accusing the NEDG of lacking integrity and being involved in ‘shady deals.'</div>
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“While I cannot authoritatively say whether Dokpesi is the only sole signatory, I will also say that the claims (of the Value and Integrity Group) are not far from the fact,” Mr. Zikirullahi said.</div>
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“I became chairman of Transition Monitoring Group in July 2012, till date, nobody informed me that TMG is a member of the Nigeria Election Debate Group, neither my predecessor nor those that are holding fort at the Nigeria Election Debate Group.</div>
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“Between 2012 and now, there was no meeting that was called upon which to deliberate on any issue regarding Nigeria Election Debate Group until now when I saw our name being floated in the media that we are one of the organisers of the presidential debate.”</div>
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Mr. Zikirullahi accused the NEDG of using TMG’s name to send out proposals to foreign donors seeking support for the presidential debate.</div>
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“So as far as I’m concerned, I don’t know anything about the debate. No phone call has been made to me or to any of my officers, no written invitation, and there is no meeting between us in which we agree on the mode and scope of the debate,” he said.</div>
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“So for me I cannot allow them to be using our corporate identity. It was on that strength that I wrote to them asking them to stop forthwith using our corporate identity.”</div>
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Mr. Zikirullahi said that he had it “in good record” that the NEDG had already collected billions of naira from a political party.</div>
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He declined to name the party.</div>
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“Yet, to make it credible they are just sending out proposals to donor agencies, and those donor agencies we have a very good relationship with them. And before they do anything that they see our name they need to verify from us.</div>
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“And it was on that stretch we got to know the extent to which they have gone. If not  they should mention the source of their funding,” said Mr. Zikirullahi.</div>
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“A lot of shady things they are doing that is not known to the public, and I said under my regime we cannot be part of that hidden agenda. It’s better they come out open let us know the direction they are going, let us know the source of their funding?</div>
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“Who is running the secretariat? How is the board being appointed? From 2011 till now there is no meeting that has been called. So it’s just a one man show, I can agree especially, it is a product of AIT and Dokpesi and so for us you have to count us out at any time we are not part of it.”</div>
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<b>‘It’s not true’</b></div>
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Eddie Emessiri, NEDG’s Executive Secretary, dismissed all the claims, accusing Mr. Zikirullahi of dabbling into partisan politics.</div>
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“High Chief Raymond Dokpesi has no hand (in NEDG), or let me put it better, High Chief Raymond Dokpesi was even the founder of this whole thing because he started election debate in 1999,” Mr. Emessiri said.</div>
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“By the time NEDG was formed, a group of organisations now decided to get this thing over, and he handed the management over to Broadcasting Organisation of Nigeria, BON.”</div>
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Mr. Emessiri explained that the chairman of BON at any particular time was the Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the NEDG.</div>
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According to him, the headship of BON is rotated between the three federal government-owned media of Nigeria Television Authority, NTA; Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria, FRCN; and Voice of Nigeria, VON.</div>
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The current head of NEDG, Sola Omole, is the Director-General of NTA. Before him were Taiwo Alimi of VON and Abubakar Jijiwa of FRCN.</div>
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“The only thing Raymond Dokpesi does, or used to do, or even now is simply we contact him and tell him please we need airtime, we want to do this, and he’ll just give his final approval, ask his Group General Manager, Tony Akiotu, to give us every support that we require,” said Mr. Emessiri.</div>
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“And that is why they have given us airtime to carry everything, all their stations anywhere they are we want to advertise anything. And they are the hub of the production.</div>
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“Raymond Dokpesi does not even attend our meetings. How then can they say Raymond Dokpesi is the person who directs NEDG.”</div>
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Mr. Emessiri denied claims that Mr. Dokpesi was a signatory to NEDG’s bank account.</div>
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“I am the Executive Secretary of the organisation, I manage the bank account and the bank account is Zenith Bank. Come to Zenith Bank, Area 7, Abuja, and find out. That is the only account that we have,” he said.</div>
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“The First Bank account was the account that they ran many many years ago and we don’t use that anymore. It was at the very beginning when Raymond Dokpesi founded the organisation, even before 2003. We never used that in 2007, we never used that in 2011, not to talk of now.</div>
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“We moved over to Zenith Bank when the chairmanship of the organisation went to VON. And VON also has account in Zenith Bank, that particular branch.”</div>
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Mr. Emessiri insisted that the NEDG had been having meetings, adding that TMG was part of the group but he doesn’t know “what got into the head” of Mr. Zikirullahi, its current chairman.</div>
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“He didn’t look through the books he had to know that the former chairmen of TMG were full time members of NEDG and present in every of our meetings. This man has taken over, because he has a bent on politics he started criticising.”</div>
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<b>PREMIUM TIMES</b> also contacted Mr. Dokpesi, who vehemently denied all the claims, particularly the allegation that he collected billions from a political party on behalf of NEDG.</div>
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“Which politician ever gave me money? Which politician ever gave me money?” he asked.</div>
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When told that some newspapers had already run the story on how he was using the NEDG as a private estate, Mr. Dokpesi said he had not seen the publication yet.</div>
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“I’m in Edo North at this point in time. Election is next week, I’m busy in my senatorial district so I do not know what you are talking about,” Mr. Dokpesi said.</div>
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“But you say there is a publication, they can publish anything they want. Before they invited you to a press conference I’m sure they already had what their considerations are.</div>
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“NEDG is a group that started the debate in 1999. DAAR Communications and I have always wanted a debate in Nigeria since 1999. Almost single-handedly, it is part of our budget.</div>
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“In 1999 when we held the debate in Lagos all the media people (that) are existing how did they contribute? When we held in 2003 was it not the same DAAR Communications that funded it? When they held in 2007 was it not DAAR Communications that supported It? When they did in 2007, did they not see it?</div>
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“Why is this one the particular one that is now an issue?”</div>
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Asked if he carried other board members along in NEDG’s activities, Mr. Dokpesi responded, “What do you mean whether I carry? Who do I have to carry? Mr. Gentleman, understand that there is a chairman, NEDG, in the person of Aremo Taiwo Alimi. There is a chairman Board of Trustees of the NEDG, that was Jijiwa but it’s now DG of NTA. They have their Board of Trustees, what is my role in it?</div>
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“I have no problem. I know that…. Who are these Integrity Group? Who are they made up?</div>
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Mr. Dokpesi also denied the claims that he single-handedly ran the account of the NEDG.</div>
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“So why don’t you find out, they have an Executive Secretary of NEDG, whether I know anything about the account?</div>
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“I have no apologies. I can understand. I’ve told you I’m in Edo north at this present time.</div>
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“Whatever is the issue it is good, if the fear of Raymond Dokpesi is the beginning of wisdom now, may God Almighty help Nigeria.”</div>
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Dokpesi Fingered In Election Debate Group's 'Shady Deals'

The Nigeria Election Debate Group, NEDG, has organised presidential and vice presidential debates since 1999, but fresh claims have eme...

Obasanjo Gets 3 Ministerial Slots As APC Shares Power

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<b>Leaders of  the All Progressives Congress (APC) were involved in marathon meetings throughout last week in Abuja in what was described as “last minute confidence-building exercise.”</b></div>
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Strategic leaders of the party had arrived Abuja on Monday and remained in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) till Saturday morning when some of them headed for Lafia, Nasarawa State for the grand finale of the presidential campaign rally in the North-Central state.</div>
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Sources told Sunday Tribune that as part of confidence-building aimed at ensuring that stakeholders go into the election with a sense of belonging, each of the leaders was told what he is likely to get in the event the APC wins the presidential election on 28 March.</div>
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It was gathered that though some discussions on power sharing had actually taken place before now, the exercise of last week was aimed at rebuilding confidence in the party and firming up a zoning arrangement.</div>
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“Some strategists of the party involved in the power sharing arrangement have been meeting in Abuja since the beginning of last week. Many flew into the capital city on Monday and they remained in town till Saturday. What could be regarded as the grand finale of the meeting took place at the Imo State Governor’s Lodge in Abuja on Friday evening. The arrangements were finalised at the meeting,” a source said.</div>
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It was gathered that each of the leaders from the geopolitical zones has been given a sense of belonging in the arrangement.</div>
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For instance, a source said that former President Olusegun Obasanjo was offered three ministerial slots, FCT, Interior and Defence.</div>
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It was also gathered that the position of Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) was zoned to the South-South with the like of Governor Rotimi Amaechi and the APC National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, said to have been penciled in for the job.</div>
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It was also learnt that the spokesman of APC, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, has been penciled in as Minister of Information, while Honourable Abike Dabiri has been penciled in as Special Adviser to The President on Media and Publicity.</div>
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<b><a href="http://www.tribune.com.ng/news/top-stories/item/32641-apc-leaders-share-power-give-obj-three-ministerial-slots">Nigerian Tribune</a></b></div>

Obasanjo Gets 3 Ministerial Slots As APC Shares Power

Leaders of the All Progressives Congress (APC) were involved in marathon meetings throughout last week in Abuja in what was describe...

Jonathan vs Buhari: How They Stand In 36 States, FCT | PUNCH

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpZIpFIyE4gVXSs8yXzdTY02XJ7_YzKLhez4KL1-384D9ZyYiQ7t1QdPbIszyQWvVxH8HIiHZ-evb2BG932xNr0Fa2iRXi-b-xfiWQIACXBioPk1En8E3QJNs_nPyr-BZNTQlUxXTKwhtI/s1600/NigeriaDecides2015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpZIpFIyE4gVXSs8yXzdTY02XJ7_YzKLhez4KL1-384D9ZyYiQ7t1QdPbIszyQWvVxH8HIiHZ-evb2BG932xNr0Fa2iRXi-b-xfiWQIACXBioPk1En8E3QJNs_nPyr-BZNTQlUxXTKwhtI/s1600/NigeriaDecides2015.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>With the presidential election just around the corner, our correspondents write that the battle, which is a straight one between President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari, may spring some surprises</b></div>
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As Nigerians, nay the world, wait for the March 28 presidential election and the 10 competing political parties putting finishing touches to their strategies, the actual contest, political watchers have submitted, is between the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) of the All Progressives Congress (APC).</div>
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How would the scenario look like in the country’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, when the battle is fought, won and lost?</div>
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<b>Abia</b></div>
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President Jonathan of the PDP is expected to win the presidential poll in Abia State as his party remains the dominant one there. The PDP’s strong base in the state coupled with the position of Governor Theodore Orji as the Coordinator of Jonathan’s Campaign Organisation in the South-East zone has further boosted Jonathan’s chances at the poll. Abia parades an army of people and accomplished Nigerians who are of the PDP family and they have been working assiduously to deliver their various localities to the President. Some of them include: Nigeria’s High Commissioner to Canada, Chief Ojo Maduekwe; former PDP National Chairman, Vincent Ogbulafor; former Senate President Adulphus Wabara; Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala; Gen. Ike Nwachukwu (retd); among a host of others.</div>
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Jonathan’s marital tie with Abia State is also expected to boost his chances. The mother of the First Lady, Patience Jonathan, hailed from Abia and the state enjoys a very warm relationship with the First Family.</div>
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<b>Abuja (FCT)</b></div>
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Abuja, the seat of power, should ordinarily be the star on the crown of the eventual winner of the Presidential elections. However, the territory which some refer to as a city of civil servants is likely to be almost evenly split between Jonathan and Buhari.</div>
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Senator Philip Aduda (PDP) is expected to lead other public and political office holders to mobilise votes for the President because the FCT Minister, Senator Bala Mohammed; would be required to go back to Bauchi where he hails from to join the governor and the party’s national chairman, Adamu Mua’azu to campaign for the President. Aduda, however, has to contend with a former political opponent, Adamu Sidi-Ali, who apart from contesting for a Senate seat is also mobilising support for Buhari and the APC. That Abuja is where the President has lived for six years counts for a lot but the large number of northerners in the city is also a plus for Buhari. Verdict: It’s too close to call.</div>
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<b>Adamawa</b></div>
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It is a state of political gladiators and all of them will want to make a point. The state boasts of ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the APC; wife of APC presidential candidate, Aisha Buhari; former Chairman of the PDP, Bamanga Tukur; ex-EFCC Chairman, Nuhu Ribadu, among others.</div>
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It would have been an easy ride for the PDP, but for the Boko Haram menace that has claimed many lives.</div>
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The opinion of political analysts in the state is that despite the successes recorded in Mubi and many other towns, many indigenes are not impressed because they believe that the President launched the late war on the insurgents to score a political point.</div>
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Hence, it looks like a tight race between Buhari and Jonathan despite the fact that PDP won the state in 2011.</div>
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<b>Akwa Ibom</b></div>
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Both the PDP and the APC are popular in Akwa Ibom State. Each of these two political parties exercises dominance in some sections of the state.</div>
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The people of Oro ethnic nationality (the largest ethnic group in Akwa Ibom South Senatorial District with five local government areas) are mainly against the PDP.</div>
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The people, who embrace APC hold that if Oro continues to remain in the PDP, the probability for them to produce a governor in the next 40 years will be slim.</div>
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Other areas with strong support APC base are Uruan; Ibeno; Ikot Abasi; Esit Eket; Abak Federal Constituency otherwise known as Abak Five; Itu; Ini; Ikono. The party has also encroached into areas like Ikot Ekpene; Essien Udim, where the PDP has strongholds.</div>
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However, Governor Godswill Akpabio who is an ardent loyalist of Jonathan is expected to deliver the state to PDP coupled with the South-East support for Jonathan.</div>
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<b>Anambra</b></div>
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In 2011, President Jonathan of the PDP polled 1,145,169 million votes or 98.8 per cent of the total votes cast in Anambra State.</div>
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From the statistics, Anambra gave Jonathan the highest proportion of votes in the country. His closest rival was the Congress Progressives Congress candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, who polled 4,223 votes.</div>
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The situation on the ground shows that Jonathan still has an edge over Buhari and will very likely win the presidential election in the state.</div>
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The sentiments that worked well for Jonathan in 2011 are still very much around. But the party has lost a lot of followers, who though may not move over to vote Buhari, may remain indifferent.</div>
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The factors playing in favour of Jonathan include the incumbency factor. The party in power in the state, the All Progressives Grand Alliance, has also adopted Jonathan as its presidential candidate.</div>
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This adds to the advantage of Jonathan being the official candidate of the biggest opposition party in the state.</div>
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Jonathan is likely to win but with a diminished margin as against the result in 2011 when he scored 98 per cent of the votes.</div>
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<b>Bauchi</b></div>
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With the National Chairman of the PDP, Adamu Mu’azu; the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Bala Mohammed and Governor Isa Yuguda, President Jonathan should expect to garner a substantial number of votes or at least 25 per cent of the votes. However, this can only happen if the three resolve their differences and decide to work together. Buhari’s popularity among the ordinary folk in the state is unlikely to wane before the March 28 election. Buhari is most likely to carry the day.</div>
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<b>Bayelsa</b></div>
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In Bayelsa, the home state of President Jonathan, it is almost a taboo to mention any other political party except the PDP.</div>
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The emergence of the rival opposition political party, the APC, has yet to change the people’s perception about the PDP. Also, the APC has yet to entrench itself as a formidable party in the state. Observers believe that in Bayelsa, the general election is <i>fait accompli</i> for the PDP as the party has formidable structures in the state compared to the APC and other political parties.</div>
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<b>Benue</b></div>
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Here the two candidates’ chances stand at 55 per cent for Jonathan and 45 for Buhari. Though a PDP controlled state, the people of the state complain endlessly of non-payment of salaries which they say has been the bane of the government. The state is agrarian with a high dominance of civil servants in the elite class.</div>
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Having the civil servants objecting to any government spells near defeat for such administration. This is what has put the PDP on the path of declined popularity. However, Jonathan still stands slightly higher than Buhari in the reckoning of the people. Also, Senate President David Mark will want to make a good showing in his state.</div>
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<b>Borno</b></div>
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In Borno, Buhari has been a political factor since the first day he declared his ambition to contest the presidency of Nigeria in 2007. He has always come first while his opponents, Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar’Adua and the current one, Jonathan, came a far second. He is idolised by the people of the state, it can even been said that he is more loved in the state than in his home state of Katsina because he lost there to Umaru Yar’Adua in 2007. He has never lost any election in Borno where he is seen as a role model and anyone that seeks political office has to come via him.</div>
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The love for Buhari was said to have started when he was the military governor in Maiduguri, which was the then capital of the North-East state and till date, he is still loved as if those days were moments away.</div>
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As it stands today, Buhari will get a landslide victory over Jonathan in Borno.</div>
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<b>Cross River</b></div>
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In Cross River State, it is obvious where the pendulum will swing in the March 28 presidential election. This is so because it is one of the few states in the South-South region that is completely controlled by the PDP.</div>
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Candidates of the ruling party won the entire senatorial and House of Representatives seats in the 2011 election. The party also produced the governor and 24 out of 25 members of the state House of Assembly. It also has in its kitty, all the 18 Local Government Area chairmen and 196 councillors.</div>
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Apart from an almost overwhelming victory for the PDP presidential candidate, votes based on ethnic sentiment might also go in favour of President Jonathan because the electorate thinks that the two-term tenure of a candidate from the region must be upheld.</div>
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<b>Delta</b></div>
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In Delta, President Jonathan stands head and shoulders above his closest rival, Buhari.</div>
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A number of factors are playing in favour of the President in the state and one of them is the fact that he is from the South-South geopolitical zone. The people of Delta, would rather vote their own than support someone else from another geopolitical zone.</div>
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According to Bunor Agbomedarho, a former banker and House of Assembly aspirant, the people of Delta State will not throw away their son for whatever reason. “He is from here and we will give it to him naturally,” he said.</div>
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In addition to that, the coastal areas of the state, where block votes usually emerge from to determine eventual winners of most of the presidential and governorship elections are peopled by Jonathan’s Ijaw ethnic group.</div>
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Apart from the ethnic factor, those who now control affairs in the coastal areas, fall among the ex-Niger Delta militants that have benefitted heavily from the Federal Government under Jonathan.</div>
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Another factor that plays in favour of Jonathan is the incumbent factor in Delta where his party, the PDP, is ruling.</div>
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<b>Ebonyi</b></div>
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This is another South-East state where the PDP and its presidential candidate, Jonathan, have an edge over the opposition.</div>
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The attempt to impeach Governor Martins Elechi, who has a strong support at the grassroots, at some point threatened to undermine Jonathan’s re-election campaign in the state. There were indications that most of the governor’s supporters would have voted against the President in protest, had Elechi been impeached before the elections.</div>
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The dark cloud has, however, cleared after the Ebonyi State House of Assembly reportedly suspended the impeachment process.</div>
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<b>Edo</b></div>
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Edo has a total of 1,779,738 registered voters. But the APC currently holds sway as the ruling party in Edo State, having defeated the PDP in the 2007 and 2012 governorship elections.</div>
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Like in other states in the South-South, ethnicity is considered a major factor, which would attract support for the PDP and Jonathan in the March 28 poll, as it did in 2011, when it secured the majority votes in the state, irrespective of the political parties.</div>
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Since the inception of the opposition party, Buhari has become seemingly popular across the state, compared to 2003, 2007 and 2011 presidential elections, where his campaigns were more pronounced in Auchi, an area largely dominated by Muslims. Also, Governor Adams Oshiomhole has a large following and can swing votes Buhari’s way. The Chairman of the APC, John Odigie-Oyegun, who is from the state will want to prove that he is a chairman indeed despite the political sagacity of Chief Tony Anenih who is a force to reckon with.</div>
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<b>Ekiti</b></div>
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Events in Ekiti recently suggest a tilt in the balance between the popularity of the ruling PDP and the opposition APC. Although Governor Ayodele Fayose has continued to enjoy the support of the grassroots, it is observed these days that his large following in the state is fast depleting in ranks. This may not be unconnected with the squabbles over the primaries of the party conducted in December last year. The division in the State House of Assembly is also a minus for the PDP as the legislators who are anti-Fayose are not keen on getting their supporters to vote for Jonathan.</div>
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The opposition seems to be gathering momentum especially with the return of the governorship candidate of the Labour Party, Opeyemi Bamidele, to the APC.</div>
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Bamidele who declared support for Buhari has deployed his political platform, the Ekiti Bibire Coalition, for the mission.</div>
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The talk in town is that this general election is different from the governorship election when people mobilised and voted Fayose. It is a common trend to see people shouting ‘sai Buhari’ on the streets of Ado Ekiti.</div>
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<b>Enugu</b></div>
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In Enugu, President Jonathan is expected to get more votes than Buhari and other presidential candidates.</div>
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This expectation is based on the fact that, among the 36 states in the country, Enugu is arguably one of the states where the PDP has the strongest followership.</div>
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There is hardly any prominent politician that is campaigning against Jonathan in Enugu at the moment - even some ‘aggrieved’ former PDP members who joined other political parties in order to realise their political ambitions in the 2015 polls are including the President’s pictures in their campaign posters.</div>
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The politicians with the largest support bases in the state are all campaigning for Jonathan - these include Governor Sullivan Chime, Deputy Senate President Ike Ekweremadu, former Senate President Ken Nnamani, and a former governor of old Anambra State, Chief Jim Nwobodo, among several others.</div>
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<b>Gombe</b></div>
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This is likely to be one of the most keenly contested states in the North because just as General Buhari, enjoys a large following, the state Governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo; the Minister of Transportation, Senator Idris Umar and the Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the ruling PDP, Abdullahi Jalo, who are ardent supporters of President Jonathan, have a point to prove. They will be up against a former governor of the state, Senator Danjuma Goje who is a stalwart of the APC.</div>
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<b>Imo</b></div>
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Like other South-East states, President Jonathan waxes strong in Imo. The fact that he has been adopted by main Igbo socio-cultural groups has made him stronger in this state. In Imo, it is Jonathan, even though Gov. Rochas Okorocha of the APC, who is the only South-East governor in the party, will want to show his might and popularity.</div>
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<b>Jigawa</b></div>
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Here, there is an impressive followership for Buhari. Many political analysts have submitted that it would not be difficult for Buhari to coast home with victory in the state. However, Gov. Sule Lamido of the PDP will not allow himself to be put to shame.</div>
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President Jonathan is looking up to him to deliver the state and he will do everything not to disappoint the President. As a founding member of the PDP, he has a point to prove. Whether he can convince the northern electorate to vote for Jonathan remains to be seen.</div>
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<b>Kaduna</b></div>
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This is the state of Vice-President Namadi Sambo, who the President expects to deliver the state. The Secretary of the PDP Board of Trustees, Senator Walid Jibrin, said, “It is the quality of crowd that matters in a rally.”</div>
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It was a veiled reference to the scanty crowd of supporters that greeted the PDP Presidential Campaign Train to Kaduna State on January 31, 2015.</div>
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In that rally, the main bowl of the Ahmadu Bello Stadium, was half-filled, thereby sending signals that President Jonathan may find winning the 2015 presidential race, in the state difficult.</div>
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But Jibrin allayed the fears as according to him, the PDP as a party believed in a ‘quality crowd’ and not ‘quantity’ which, he argued, characterised the opposition APC presidential campaign.</div>
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However, the antagonistic disposition of the people of Northern Kaduna zone, who are pre-dominantly Muslims, will certainly work against the President and be an advantage to the APC candidate. But, Jonathan may get votes from the southern part of the state, a predominantly Christian dominated area. This area has consistently voted en bloc for the PDP since 1999. Buhari won the state with 1.3 million votes in 2011.</div>
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<b>Kano</b></div>
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It is an open secret that the presidential candidate of the APC has his strongest support base in the North.</div>
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Even before the defection of Kano State governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, from the PDP to the APC, most of the eligible voters in Kano were ardent Buhari loyalists.</div>
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A lot of factors appear to be working in Buhari’s favour in the state. The PDP is yet to deal with its internal conflicts while the state governor, and a majority of members of the National Assembly members are members of the APC. The emergence of Lamido Sanusi Lamido as the Emir of Kano seemed to have sealed Jonathan’s fate. The Emir is not a fan of Jonathan and he doesn’t hide it.</div>
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It will be safe to say, Buhari will beat Goodluck Jonathan.</div>
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<b>Katsina</b></div>
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There is no lenghty expalanation for this. Charity, they say, begins at home. The home state of Buhari is overwhelmingly for him. Though the state is ruled by the PDP, the residents are not leaving their own unsupported.</div>
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<b>Kebbi</b></div>
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Carved out from the old Sokoto State, this state has produced governors and members of the National Assembly from both the ruling party and the opposition. It started off as an ANPP state in 1999 but has been under the control of the PDP since 2007. The turmoil within the state chapter of the PDP is likely to cost the party and its candidates dearly. Even without such a conflict, the Buhari phenomenon which has swept most parts of the North is unlikely to change there.</div>
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<b>Kogi</b></div>
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In Kogi, the contest according to political observers will be a keen one.The state has been ruled by the PDP for the 16 years of the current democratic dispensation. Though there had been attempts to wrest power from the PDP in the state, such had so far proved futile making the party to record either substantial or landslide victories during elections.</div>
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But the scenario appears to be changing with the reported defection of some political juggernauts from the ruling PDP to the APC.</div>
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Also with the reported inroad of Buhari into the minds of many people in the northern states, and Kogi being a state near Abuja appears to be catching the bug.</div>
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It may not be quite easy for one to accurately predict whether Jonathan or Buhari will convincingly win in Kogi in the March 28 presidential election given the political dynamism of voting, but that Jonathan won there in 2011 is a plus.</div>
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<b>Kwara</b></div>
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The PDP had lost the Kwara State to the APC following the defection of former Governor Bukola Saraki and his followers. Those who defected with him to the APC included another former governor and who is also now a senator, Mr. Shaaba Lafiagi; all the members of the House of Representatives, the current state governor, Mr. Abdulfatah Ahmed and his political appointees; the Speaker, Kwara State House of Assembly and 19 other legislators.</div>
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While Saraki and his followers give the impression that the APC will trounce the PDP, it may not be that easy because of alleged federal might and the perception that Kwara residents are yearning for a change from an alleged Saraki oligarchy.</div>
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Buhari is, however, expected to coast home with about 70 per cent of the total votes cast.</div>
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<b>Lagos</b></div>
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The APC candidate is tipped to win the election in the state based on the fact that it is the stronghold of the major opposition party since 1999. According to political watchers, even though the ruling party, the PDP, won the presidential poll in the state in 2003 (the main opposition party did not field any presidential candidate that year), 2007 and 2011, the political dynamics had since changed.</div>
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Although Buhari is from the North, he is expected to win the state under the platform of APC also because his deputy, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo is Yoruba. The choice of Osinbajo has been a hit in the South-West states. Lagos is also home to Senator Bola Tinubu, the national leader of the APC and of course Governor Babatunde Fashola one of the highest rated governors in the country.</div>
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Recently, the PDP Governors Forum at its meeting in Lagos said the party would win elections in all the states in the South including Lagos.</div>
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Overall, Buhari is expected to win Lagos on Saturday.</div>
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<b>Nasarawa</b></div>
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While many may have concluded that Nasarawa State is for Buhari, a political analyst who pleaded anonymity in an interview with SUNDAY PUNCH in Lafia, said: “The only thing that might affect the chances of the presidential candidate of Buhari, in the state is the inability of his party to handle the recent crisis that engulfed it in some parts of the state in recent times.”</div>
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Though controlled by the APC, Jonathan won by 408,997 votes in 2011. The PDP has also suffered major cracks in the state that might affect its chances on March 28.</div>
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<b>Niger</b></div>
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The presence of two former Heads of State, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida and Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar who are reportedly opposed to a Buhari government will make the state a tough one for APC to conquer. It is controlled by the PDP even though it is on record that President Jonathan has never won outrightly there. Also, Governor Babangida Aliyu who wants to run for President in 2019 sees this election as a litmus test. However, Buhari won Niger in 2011 and this is significant.</div>
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<b>Ogun</b></div>
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In Ogun, the ruling APC has engaged in robust campaigns across the 20 local government areas and the 236 wards. And the campaign has always been led by the state governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun.</div>
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The APC presidential candidate, Buhari, has more following than the governor, though. The emergence of Prof. Yemi Osinbajo as APC vice-presidential candidate, who is from the state has been termed a ‘technical knockout.’</div>
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The three-day warning strike by the civil servants under the Joint National Negotiating Council, has affected the rating of the governor.</div>
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However, Buhari’s touted aura, integrity and upright lifestyle are working for him in the state. The artisans, taxi drivers, and many market women are rooting for him.</div>
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With this going on, the PDP is struggling to patch up the cleavages created by the power blocs in the party. There is the Buruji Kashamu camp working in tandem with the Adebayo Dayo-led state executive of the PDP; the former Speaker Dimeji Bankole’s camp and another power bloc, Jubri Martins-Kuye.</div>
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These political cleavages had really polarised the party, and slowed down its wheel of progress.</div>
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<b>Ondo</b></div>
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Before the rescheduling of the election, there were obvious signs that Jonathan might lose the polls.</div>
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Jonathan, at his campaign rally, faced with the obvious facts of PDP’s house in disarray, raised the alarm, warning that the raging conflict could cost the party the much needed victory at the polls.</div>
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When he visited the state, Buhari’s change message was brief to Ondo citizens who thronged the Democracy Park and waited patiently for his arrival. Buhari’s following remains unprecedented in the history of the state since he started his quest for Aso Rock in 2003. The whirl of supporters sent jitters down the spine of the PDP, an ally of the Labour Party. But, time, seems to be turning things around for the PDP, with an additional six weeks, the party has taken the campaign to a new level, going great lengths to weigh down the opposition. Hence, Buhari and Jonathan may be in a neck-and-neck race.</div>
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<b>Osun</b></div>
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The presidential election in Osun State is a straight fight between President Jonathan and Buhari but Governor Rauf Aregbesola’s stake in the poll is probably higher than that of other state governors especially in the South-West.</div>
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However, the PDP is coming up stronger with the earlier postponement of the polls and declining popularity of the APC among the civil servants and lecturers of the state due to the non-payment of their five months salaries and issues with non-remittance of their pension deductions.</div>
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The visit of Jonathan to some monarchs in the state has been described as a good strategy to sway more people’s support to his side during the presidential poll.</div>
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But, most of the notable politicians in the state are in the APC and this makes Buhari’s job very easy among voters.</div>
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<b>Oyo</b></div>
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With two weeks to the former date of the presidential election, the Buhari presidential campaign train hit Ibadan on January 29 with unarguably more than a million people trooping to the venue of the campaign on Mapo Hill.</div>
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But with the six weeks extension, Jonathan has succeeded in bringing all the former PDP politicians together under his fold with the help of Governor Olusegun Mimiko. The list includes another former governor in the state, Rashidi Ladoja of the Accord Party, Adebayo Alao-Akala of the Labour Party and Seyi Makinde of the Social Democratic Party. They do not have to leave their new parties; all they were asked to do is to support the presidential ambition of President Jonathan while they can afterwards pursue their individual political ambitions.</div>
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It is important to note that Buhari may not poll the huge votes that he would have recorded if the election had been held on February 14, 2015.</div>
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<b>Plateau</b></div>
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In Plateau, though the majority of the people may want to loathe the PDP candidate, President Jonathan, they are not for his APC counterpart, Buhari, either.</div>
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The reasons may not be farfetched. Plateau has been a traditional PDP state and the people have voted overwhelmingly for the party in the 2011 presidential elections. Indeed, the PDP garnered over one million votes from Plateau then. But the reality is not so today as the party could well be struggling to get the required 25 per cent. Governor Jonah Jang, who is the leader of a faction of the PDP Govenors’ Forum, has the task of delivering the state to Jonathan. Hence, it is not clear if Buhari can pull off any magic.</div>
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<b>Rivers</b></div>
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It is a tough call between Jonathan and Buhari in Rivers State as both are popular and they will likely share the votes. Any of them who wins in the state will not do so with a wide margin. Analysts have, however, given it to President Jonathan though it will not be in a landslide like in 2011 when he got about two million votes. This is because the APC has gained a lot of ground in the state.</div>
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President Jonathan may win in Rivers as a result of the sentiment that the PDP presidential candidate is from the Niger Delta. Voting along ethnic and religious lines will be pronounced in the state during the presidential poll. The Patience Jonathan factor cannot be ignored. She and Governor Amaechi, who also has a large following, have drawn the battle line and many cannot wait to see the result. The popularity of the PDP governorship candidate, Nyesom Wike, will also be tested.</div>
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<b>Sokoto</b></div>
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The seat of the caliphate as it chooses to be called is unmistakably one of the strongholds of the APC in the forthcoming presidential elections. The state started off under the control of the now defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party. So strong was its influence that the PDP had to ask its then flag bearer, Murktari Shagari, to hand his ticket over to Aliyu Wammako who was then candidate of the ANPP to stand for the 2007 elections.</div>
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During the PDP primaries of 2011, party delegates from the state voted massively for Atiku Abubakar, when he failed to get the ticket, they cast their votes for Buhari who stood on the platform of little known Congress for Progressives Change. The fact that the National Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki (retd) hails from the state is unlikely to change anything.</div>
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The APC governorship candidate, Aminu Tambuwal, who is also the Speaker of the House of Representatives has a huge following in the state.</div>
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It’s Buhari.</div>
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<b>Taraba</b></div>
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Predominantly Christian, this is another state where it’s tough to predict who will win. The christian factor will be working for Jonathan. However, the northern factor is working for Buhari as northerners feel that they must not fail to seize this opportunity to elect their own. Jonathan won here in 2011. However, PDP is not as strong as it used to be in the state.</div>
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<b>Yobe</b></div>
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This is one of the few states that have never fallen into the hands of the ruling party at the centre since 1999. Just like Borno, Yobe has remained the stronghold of opposition politics at all levels.</div>
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During his tenure as the military governor of the state before he was moved to the Ministry of Petroleum in 1976, Buhari built bridges beyond his native Katsina State and perhaps that is his greatest strength today. The people of Yobe State have continuously queued behind him and no matter the strength of his opponent, they have never shifted ground. Even when the governor of the state then, Bukar Abba Ibrahim, tagged Buhari a political liability without shelf value, the people of Yobe were proud to be associated with him.</div>
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Hence, in Yobe, it is Buhari.</div>
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<b>Zamfara</b></div>
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Zamfara, like Yobe and Borno states, has remained one of the few states in northern Nigeria which is the traditional playground of the opposition. This has remained so even when a one-time governor of the state, Mamuda Shinkafi defected from the then ANPP to join the PDP. His decision to dump the ANPP to join the PDP at the centre did not save him from electoral defeat. When it comes to the question of the presidential election, irrespective of party affiliation, the people appear united in their support for Buhari.</div>
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<b>Credit: <a href="http://www.punchng.com/news/310199/">Sunday Punch</a></b>

Jonathan vs Buhari: How They Stand In 36 States, FCT | PUNCH

With the presidential election just around the corner, our correspondents write that the battle, which is a straight one between Presid...

[PHOTOS] Daura Youths Wash-Off Jonathan's Paths After Visit To Emir

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvz266zPyHe07QIr7_doqWNsZ_Oig1eVKWG6ODejQ-V3b5oRg8x8HZNVOjc_U03Xa2Cj8y0FKFhDUHGfPxlhu0sK5dbpQeZtZciHbzYVhE9kghdz9D3LKRiu-Z7-sNSmqMNrVLph_Tr49t/s1600/daura0.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="536" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvz266zPyHe07QIr7_doqWNsZ_Oig1eVKWG6ODejQ-V3b5oRg8x8HZNVOjc_U03Xa2Cj8y0FKFhDUHGfPxlhu0sK5dbpQeZtZciHbzYVhE9kghdz9D3LKRiu-Z7-sNSmqMNrVLph_Tr49t/s1600/daura0.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>President Jonathan on Saturday visited Daura, Katsina State, the home town of the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), General Muhammadu Buhari to pay a courtesy visit to the Emir of Daura, Alhaji Umar Faruk Umar.</b></div>
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Shortly after his departure, youths took to the streets and washed the road he took to Emir’s palace with brooms and standby water tanker.</div>
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[PHOTOS] Daura Youths Wash-Off Jonathan's Paths After Visit To Emir

President Jonathan on Saturday visited Daura, Katsina State, the home town of the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congre...

Beware Of Jonathan's Declaration Of 'Victory' Over Boko Haram, Security Experts Warn

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<b>Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan on Friday said the military hopes to recapture towns seized by Boko Haram within a month, in what would be a swift victory after six years of bloody conflict.</b></div>
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But experts warned against any premature declaration of victory, with the militants still proving capable of carrying out deadly hit-and-run strikes and indications of coalition lapses.</div>
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Jonathan, who is seeking re-election on March 28, said Boko Haram was “getting weaker and weaker every day”.</div>
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“I’m very hopeful that it will not take us more than a month to recover old territories that hitherto have been in their hands,” he told the BBC.</div>
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Nigeria has claimed major gains against the Islamists with the help of coalition partners Cameroon, Chad and Niger, achieving in just over one month what for years it had failed to on its own.</div>
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Two out of three of the worst-hit northeast states - Yobe and Adamawa - have been declared “cleared” while the third, Borno, is expected to be liberated “soon”, the military said this week.</div>
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Major towns such as Bama and Dikwa are among some 36 localities recaptured, with just three said to be still in rebel hands.</div>
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National security advisor Mike Omeri said on Wednesday that “the final onslaught” was under way.</div>
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More than 13,000 people have lost their lives in the conflict and the main opposition candidate, former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, has campaigned hard on the government’s security record.</div>
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Mark Schroeder, vice-president for Africa analysis at security risk consultants Stratfor, said announcing victory before March 28 made political sense for Jonathan as part of the election campaign.</div>
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“The risk he runs, however, is that the insurgency is not really defeated, only disrupted temporarily and for political posturing,” he told AFP.</div>
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“It would be akin to the ‘Mission Accomplished’ declaration by (US) President (George W.) Bush in 2003 that was a premature symbol of victory in Iraq.</div>
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“Clearly, Iraq is still today struggling with an Islamist insurgency.”</div>
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Until this year, Nigerian troops had appeared unable - even unwilling - to tackle the better-armed militants, who have allied themselves with the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq.</div>
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Jonathan acknowledged to the BBC that a lack of resources was to blame.</div>
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Nnamdi Obasi, senior Nigeria researcher at the International Crisis Group, attributed the sense of urgency to the prospect of defeat by Buhari.</div>
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“That urgency facilitated the delivery and deployment of new military hardware, including assets more relevant to counter-insurgency operations,” he said.</div>
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Improvement had been seen in command and deployment structures, including the use of senior officers to lead combat operations, special forces and co-operation with local vigilantes.</div>
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The involvement of foreign military contractors, many of them South Africans, to provide technical expertise may also have made a difference, he said.</div>
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“Offensives by the military forces of neighbouring countries have helped to overstretch the insurgents and thus undermine their ability to withstand Nigerian military offensives,” he added.</div>
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A Boko Haram attack on the border town of Gamboru on Wednesday and Thursday killed 11 civilians and gave an indication of the difficulties in bringing a definitive end to the violence.</div>
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The incident highlighted possible co-ordination problems among the allies, as Chadian troops, who had recaptured the town, had withdrawn but were not replaced, according to residents.</div>
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The Nigeria Security Network of analysts on Thursday meanwhile warned that Boko Haram would revert to its guerrilla campaign of bombings and suicide attacks in the face of military pressure.</div>
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Fears remain about the safety of voters on polling day, after a spate of suicide attacks in the north in recent weeks and after Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau vowed to disrupt the election.</div>
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In the short-term shattered lives and infrastructure needed to be rebuilt, while longer term, Nigeria needs to tackle the root causes of the insurgency to prevent it flaring again, experts said.</div>
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The Borno Elders Forum on Wednesday warned that it was “too early to even start talking about any of the (1.5 million) displaced going back to any of these reclaimed territories”.</div>
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The forum’s chairman, Usman Gaji Galtimari said many areas appear to have been mined, while there have still been repeated attacks in areas said to have been recaptured.</div>
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<b><a href="http://www.punchng.com/news/experts-warn-against-jonathans-boko-haram-victory-claims/">Punch</a></b></div>

Beware Of Jonathan's Declaration Of 'Victory' Over Boko Haram, Security Experts Warn

Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan on Friday said the military hopes to recapture towns seized by Boko Haram within a month, in what...

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Beware Of Jonathan's Declaration Of 'Victory' Over Boko Haram, Security Experts Warn

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