With 4 days to the opening of the Nigerian presidential polls and the electoral commission having closed its doors on collection of permanent voter cards (PVCs) which are to be used by the electorate in voting their desired candidates, I have come up with a 'conservative' prediction on how the ballots may go.
In drawing my conclusions, I painstakingly collected available data and did some analysis which informed my decision on the direction the polls may take.
REGISTERED VOTERS
Statistics from INEC put total registered voters figure at 68,833,476 with the South having 31,456,296 (45.70%) and the North 37,377,198 (54.30%).
ELIGIBLE VOTERS (Those with PVCs)
Of the 68,833,476 registered voters, a total of 56,431,255 (or 81.98%) have so far collected their PVCs as at the close of collection date on March 21. 24,278,728 (77.18%) of registered voters in the South were able to collect their PVCs while 32,152,527 (86.02%) of Northern registered voters now have PVCs. Thus, of the total collected PVCs, 43.02% were from the South and 56.98% from the North.
EXPECTED VOTER TURNOUT
In my estimation, some 45,145,004 of the eligible voters will go to the booths to cast their ballots on election day. This is a projection of 80% voter turnout. This translates to 19,422,982 from the South and 25,722,022 from the North. In the past elections, some 65% of registered/eligible voters had turn out to excercise their civic rights. However, the turnout is expected to be higher this time as a result of increased voter awareness, desire of Nigerians for good governance in terms of transformational change, among other factors. The expected per centage turnout is generalized because I do not have sufficient data to break down the turnout in the 2011 elections on State-by-State basis.
ESTIMATED VOID VOTES
As a rule of the thumb, I estimate that 5% of those who turn out to vote will cast their ballots wrongly thereby voiding their votes. The main reason for this is the unimpressive voter education on the parts of the political parties, especially in the rural areas. Like my generalized projection on the expected turnout, per cent of void votes is also generalized at 5% because of lack of sufficient data from previous election(s). Therefore, some 971,149 ballots from the South and 1,276,101 votes from the North will be void. Thus, bringing estimated total void votes to 2,257,250.
VALID BALLOTS (PROJECTED)
Having made a 5% provision for void votes, some 42,887,754 votes of the expected 45,145,004 voter turnout will cast their votes correctly. This means that 18,451,833 of Southern electorate (from 19,422,982 turnout) and 24,435,921 of Northern voters (from likely 25,722,022 voters) will cast their ballots correctly.
OTHER PARTIES
It is a known fact that the battle for Aso Rock is a straight one between the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). Despite this, other political parties in the race will also have some ballots cast for them. Some of these votes will come from 'confused' electorate who will be unable to identify their desired party logos - an effect of inadequate voter education. A blanket 10% provision is made for this. Thus, an estimated 4,288,775 (1,845,183 from the South and 2,443,592 from the North) votes will go to other political parties while the remaining 90% (38,598,978) will be shared between the PDP and the APC.
THE MAIN CONTENDERS
I have decided to go with the projections made by the PUNCH newspaper which you can find here. The newspaper had projected some States will be won by either of the main parties and some other States as "too close to call". For this reason, I assumed that any State that will be won by either party will be so won with 75% of the votes (that is, the remaining 90% of the valid votes) while the other party will go with the remaining 25%. I also assumed that ballots in those States seen to be too close to call will be shared equally by the two parties.
Given the above, and using the PUNCH newspaper map, it was projected that the PDP will win in the entire South-East, South-South (excluding Edo); North-Central States of Benue, Kogi and Plateau; and Taraba State in the North-East. No victory is projected for PDP in the South-West and North-West, the two geo-political zones with highest number of registered and eligible (PVC-holders) voters.
The APC is, however, projected to win in the entire North-West (except Kaduna); the entire South-West (minus Ondo); the North-East (excluding Adamawa, Gombe and Taraba) and Kwara State in the North-Central. No win is envisaged for the APC in the entire South-East and South-South, the two zones seen as the stronghold of the PDP candidate, Goodluck Jonathan.
The PUNCH newspaper predictions say votes will be too close to call in Edo (South-South); Ondo (South-West); FCT, Nasarawa and Niger (North-Central); Kaduna (North-West) and Adamawa and Gombe (North-East).
In line with this, I predict the PDP scoring 17,251,195 votes (or 40%) - 9,276,181 from the South and 7,975,014 from the North - and the APC polling 21,347,783 votes (or 50%) - 7,330,469 from the South and 14,017,314 from the North.
CONCLUSION
I predict the APC emerging victorious in the polls with majority valid votes and securing the constitutional 25% of valid ballots in all 36 States and the FCT. The PDP, though losing to the opposition on a 'slim' margin, will garner the mandatory 25% of ballots in all 36 States and the FCT.
Ola Olatunji is the publisher of The Nigeria Newsroom (TNN.ng) blog and can be contacted on Facebook, Google+ and Twitter
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